Hailstone (Upper Buffalo) — Predictions: 2026-08-06
Rise predictions issued: 3
No-rise claims (quiet / too light) issued: 0
Settled (18-h window passed): 3
Issued 2026-08-07 05:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
18 CFS |
7 CFS |
-11 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-08-07 05:51 |
2026-08-07 05:30 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (0.85" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (13 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.81" |
234 CFS |
04:34 |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-08-07 04:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
210 CFS |
7 CFS |
-203 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-08-07 04:51 |
2026-08-07 04:30 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (0.84" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (12 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.81" |
292 CFS |
04:34 |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-08-07 03:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
202 CFS |
7 CFS |
-195 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-08-07 04:51 |
2026-08-07 03:30 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (0.83" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (12 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.80" |
287 CFS |
04:33 |
INTENSE |