Hailstone (Upper Buffalo) — Predictions: 2026-07-29
Rise predictions issued: 3
No-rise claims (quiet / too light) issued: 0
Settled (18-h window passed): 3
Issued 2026-07-30 01:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
31 CFS |
4 CFS |
-27 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-30 01:51 |
2026-07-30 01:30 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (0.74" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (11 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.61" |
172 CFS |
00:52 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-07-30 00:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
137 CFS |
5 CFS |
-132 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-30 00:51 |
2026-07-30 00:30 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (0.74" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (11 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.61" |
171 CFS |
00:52 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-07-29 23:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
86 CFS |
5 CFS |
-81 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-30 00:51 |
2026-07-29 23:30 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (0.56" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (11 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.42" |
120 CFS |
00:33 |
HEAVY |