Hailstone (Upper Buffalo) — Predictions: 2026-07-15
Rise predictions issued: 3
No-rise claims (quiet / too light) issued: 0
Settled (18-h window passed): 2
Issued 2026-07-15 20:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
| Peak CFS |
161 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-15 20:51 |
| Peak level |
Too Low |
| Pending until |
2026-07-15 22:51 |
Moisture: WET (2.51" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (10 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.04" |
439 CFS |
20:09 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-07-15 19:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
295 CFS |
14 CFS |
-280 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-15 19:51 |
2026-07-15 19:30 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.33" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (10 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.86" |
365 CFS |
19:51 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-07-15 18:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
137 CFS |
15 CFS |
-122 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-15 19:51 |
2026-07-15 18:30 |
— |
Moisture: WET (1.99" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (10 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.52" |
221 CFS |
19:23 |
HEAVY |