Hailstone (Upper Buffalo) — Predictions: 2026-07-11
Rise predictions issued: 4
No-rise claims (quiet / too light) issued: 0
Settled (18-h window passed): 4
Issued 2026-07-12 00:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
28 CFS |
14 CFS |
-14 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-12 00:51 |
2026-07-12 00:30 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (1.22" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.96" |
225 CFS |
23:37 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-07-11 23:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
170 CFS |
14 CFS |
-156 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-11 23:51 |
2026-07-11 23:30 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (1.20" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.94" |
221 CFS |
23:35 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-07-11 22:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
119 CFS |
14 CFS |
-105 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-11 22:51 |
2026-07-11 23:00 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (0.89" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.63" |
148 CFS |
23:06 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-07-11 21:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
66 CFS |
14 CFS |
-52 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-11 22:51 |
2026-07-11 23:00 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (0.57" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.31" |
72 CFS |
22:35 |
MODERATE |