Hailstone (Upper Buffalo) — Predictions: 2026-06-22
Rise predictions issued: 4
No-rise claims (quiet / too light) issued: 0
Settled (18-h window passed): 4
Issued 2026-06-22 13:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
6263 CFS |
7760 CFS |
+1497 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-06-22 13:51 |
2026-06-22 09:30 |
— |
Moisture: SATURATED (3.70" 7-day, x2.00)
Confidence: medium — Predicted rise exceeds observed range
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
3.50" |
2296 CFS |
12:41 |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-06-22 12:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
4744 CFS |
7760 CFS |
+3016 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-06-22 12:51 |
2026-06-22 09:30 |
— |
Moisture: SATURATED (3.54" 7-day, x2.00)
Confidence: medium — Predicted rise exceeds observed range
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
3.33" |
2188 CFS |
12:36 |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-06-22 11:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
842 CFS |
6840 CFS |
+5998 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-06-22 11:51 |
2026-06-22 08:45 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.52" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (8 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
2.32" |
1142 CFS |
12:09 |
INTENSE |
Threshold crossings
- low_up: 2026-06-22 11:51
- medium_up: 2026-06-22 11:51
Issued 2026-06-22 10:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
244 CFS |
6840 CFS |
+6596 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-06-22 11:51 |
2026-06-22 08:45 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (1.14" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (8 events)
Engine: —
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.93" |
306 CFS |
11:31 |
INTENSE |