Classification: correct Confidence: Model performance remains stable. The accurate prediction of a quiet day reinforces confidence in the current coefficients' ability to distinguish between significant rainfall events and background noise/minor fluctuations.
The model correctly predicted a minimal peak rise (2.60 ft vs actual 2.61 ft) during a day with 0" gauge precipitation and only minor, scattered QPE inputs, confirming the absence of significant hydrological response.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 2.6 ft | 2.61 ft | -0.01 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.12 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.38" | 0.16 ft | MODERATE | WET |
Headline: Watch — Recent rainfall is in the lower-bound range preceding rises to LOW Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical headline predicted 'Watch' for lower-bound rises to LOW. The gauge remained below the low threshold (3.0 ft), settling at 2.61 ft. The model correctly identified low risk, although the 'Watch' status might be slightly cautious for such a minor rise. It was not a false alarm as it did not predict a high/medium event.
This event represents a 'quiet day' where the physics model accurately assessed that the available rainfall data was insufficient to generate a meaningful hydrograph rise. The gauge recorded only 0.00" of precipitation, and while QPE showed some scattered activity in Bands 1-5 during hours 11:12-13:12, the amounts were small (max 0.46" in Band 1) and short-lived. The observed 0.12 ft rise is likely attributable to minor noise or very local unmeasured micro-bursts, but it is negligible in the context of the watershed's dynamic range.
The prediction of 2.60 ft was extremely close to the actual peak of 2.61 ft, with a magnitude error of only -0.4%. The timing error of 0.8 hours is acceptable given the lack of a distinct hydrograph shape to anchor. The model correctly identified that Band 5 contributed a minor 0.16 ft, which aligns with the small observed rise. Since the prediction effectively matched the 'no significant event' reality, no calibration adjustments are warranted.
No changes made.
Model performance remains stable. The accurate prediction of a quiet day reinforces confidence in the current coefficients' ability to distinguish between significant rainfall events and background noise/minor fluctuations.