Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains static; unable to validate or invalidate coefficients without QPE input.
No prediction was generated due to zero QPE rainfall in all bands, despite an observed 0.3 ft rise likely driven by residual recession or measurement noise.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | N/A | 3.24 ft | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 0.3 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
The prediction engine produced no output today because all QPE bands reported zero rainfall. While the gauge recorded a 0.3 ft rise to a peak of 3.24 ft, this magnitude is small and the hydrograph shape (sharp, short duration) is consistent with residual flow from previous saturated events or local noise rather than a new rainfall-driven hydrological event.
Given the recent history of false negatives driven by unmeasured near-gauge rainfall (May 28-29), there is a possibility that light rainfall was missed by QPE. However, without any QPE signal, it is impossible to calibrate band coefficients or lag parameters. The system correctly withheld a prediction in the absence of input data.
No coefficient adjustments are recommended. The model's behavior is consistent with the 'no_prediction' classification criteria when upstream data is unavailable or zero.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains static; unable to validate or invalidate coefficients without QPE input.