Classification: correct Confidence: Model confidence remains stable. This event confirms accurate prediction capability for low-rainfall, quiet-day scenarios where the model correctly identifies minimal hydrological response.
The model accurately predicted a minimal rise to 2.66 ft (actual 2.64 ft) driven by negligible QPE inputs, with excellent magnitude accuracy (0.8% error) and minor timing offset.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 2.66 ft | 2.64 ft | +0.02 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.27 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.29" | 0.06 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
Headline: Watch — Recent rainfall is in the lower-bound range preceding rises to LOW Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical headline predicted a 'Watch' status for rainfall in the lower-bound range preceding rises to LOW. The actual peak reached 2.64 ft, which is below the LOW threshold of 3.0 ft, consistent with the forecast.
Today's event featured very low rainfall accumulation across all bands, with the highest hourly rates not exceeding 0.18". The antecedent moisture was classified as NORMAL, and the gauge recorded no precipitation. The hydrograph showed a broad, small rise starting in the evening, consistent with slow response from distant headwaters or minimal near-gauge inputs. The predicted peak of 2.66 ft was extremely close to the actual peak of 2.64 ft, representing only a 0.8% error. The timing was off by 1.3 hours, with the prediction peaking later than the observed rise.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains stable. This event confirms accurate prediction capability for low-rainfall, quiet-day scenarios where the model correctly identifies minimal hydrological response.