Richland Creek — Predictions: 2026-05-06

Predictions issued: 8
Settled (peak window passed): 8

Issued 2026-05-06 17:09

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak height	1.97 ft	1.83 ft	-0.14 ft
Peak time	2026-05-07 04:39	2026-05-06 12:15	—

Moisture: NORMAL (1.09" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)

Issued 2026-05-06 16:09

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak height	1.97 ft	1.85 ft	-0.12 ft
Peak time	2026-05-07 03:39	2026-05-06 11:15	—

Moisture: NORMAL (1.09" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)

Issued 2026-05-06 15:09

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak height	1.97 ft	1.85 ft	-0.12 ft
Peak time	2026-05-07 02:39	2026-05-06 10:15	—

Moisture: NORMAL (1.09" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)

Issued 2026-05-06 14:09

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak height	1.97 ft	1.86 ft	-0.11 ft
Peak time	2026-05-07 01:39	2026-05-06 09:15	—

Moisture: NORMAL (1.09" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)

Issued 2026-05-06 13:09

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak height	1.97 ft	1.86 ft	-0.11 ft
Peak time	2026-05-07 00:39	2026-05-06 08:30	—

Moisture: NORMAL (1.09" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)

Issued 2026-05-06 11:09

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak height	1.96 ft	1.86 ft	-0.10 ft
Peak time	2026-05-06 22:39	2026-05-06 07:45	—

Moisture: NORMAL (1.09" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)

Issued 2026-05-06 10:09

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak height	2.06 ft	1.86 ft	-0.20 ft
Peak time	2026-05-06 21:39	2026-05-06 07:45	—

Moisture: NORMAL (1.08" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)

Issued 2026-05-06 07:09

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak height	2.04 ft	1.86 ft	-0.18 ft
Peak time	2026-05-06 18:39	2026-05-06 07:45	—

Moisture: NORMAL (1.07" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)