Richland Creek — Predictions: 2026-05-10
Predictions issued: 8
Settled (peak window passed): 8
Issued 2026-05-11 02:09
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
4.15 ft |
3.13 ft |
-1.02 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-05-11 13:39 |
2026-05-10 21:15 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.44" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)
Threshold crossings
- low_floatable_up: 2026-05-11 12:39
Issued 2026-05-11 01:09
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
5.15 ft |
3.24 ft |
-1.91 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-05-11 03:39 |
2026-05-10 20:15 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.44" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)
Threshold crossings
- low_floatable_up: 2026-05-11 02:39
Issued 2026-05-11 00:09
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
3.94 ft |
3.24 ft |
-0.70 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-05-11 06:39 |
2026-05-10 19:45 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.44" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)
Threshold crossings
- too_low_up: 2026-05-11 03:39
Issued 2026-05-10 23:09
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
3.01 ft |
3.24 ft |
+0.23 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-05-11 10:39 |
2026-05-10 19:45 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.44" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.11" |
1.70 ft |
22:49 |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
1.45" |
1.92 ft |
22:58 |
INTENSE |
Threshold crossings
- too_low_up: 2026-05-11 10:39
Issued 2026-05-10 22:09
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
4.24 ft |
3.18 ft |
-1.06 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-05-10 22:39 |
2026-05-10 18:45 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.43" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.16" |
1.77 ft |
22:22 |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
1.49" |
1.97 ft |
22:41 |
INTENSE |
Threshold crossings
- too_low_up: 2026-05-10 22:39
- low_floatable_up: 2026-05-10 22:39
Issued 2026-05-10 21:09
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
3.19 ft |
3.18 ft |
-0.01 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-05-10 22:39 |
2026-05-10 18:45 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.20" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.92" |
1.41 ft |
21:59 |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
1.26" |
1.67 ft |
22:27 |
INTENSE |
Threshold crossings
- too_low_up: 2026-05-10 22:39
Issued 2026-05-10 18:09
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.46 ft |
3.24 ft |
+1.78 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-05-11 05:39 |
2026-05-10 19:45 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (1.23" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)
Issued 2026-05-10 13:09
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.46 ft |
3.24 ft |
+1.78 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-05-11 00:39 |
2026-05-10 19:45 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (1.23" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: low — Seed coefficients only (1 calibrated events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.08" |
0.05 ft |
13:14 |
LIGHT |
| 2 |
0.06" |
0.03 ft |
13:21 |
LIGHT |