Boxley (07055646) height: (a) first 2.31 ft @ 00:00; (b) max 2.31 ft @ 00:00; (c) last 2.17 ft @ 23:30; (d) intraday low 2.17 ft @ 23:30; (e) no within-day rise — pure recession, max == first.
Ponca (07055660) discharge: (a) first 143 cfs @ 00:00; (b) max 143 cfs @ 00:00–00:15; (c) last 118 cfs @ 23:30; (d) intraday low 118 cfs @ 22:30; (e) brief +2 cfs micro-bounce 22:45→23:00 (118→120), negligible. Effectively pure recession.
Pruitt (07055680): Height: (a) first 4.47 @ 00:00; (b) max 4.47 @ 00:00; (c) last 4.25 @ 23:30; (d) intraday low 4.23 @ ~21:30/22:15/22:45/23:15; (e) micro-bumps 4.23→4.26 (21:15), 4.23→4.25 (21:45), 4.23→4.25 (23:30) — sub-resolution noise on recession. Discharge: (a) first 311 @ 00:00; (b) max 311 @ 00:00; (c) last 246 @ 23:30; (d) intraday low 240 @ 21:30; (e) micro-rises 240→249 (21:15→ pre and post), 240→246 (23:30); net pure recession.
St. Joe (07056000): Height: (a) first 6.38 @ 00:00; (b) max 6.38 @ 00:00; (c) last 5.89 @ 22:45; (d) intraday low 5.89 @ 22:45; (e) sub-cycle low→peak: 6.22 ft @ ~05:45 → 6.25 ft @ 07:30/08:00 (+0.03 ft over ~2 hr) — small but real morning rebound; also 6.09 @ 12:45 → 6.12 @ 13:15 (+0.03). Otherwise recession. Discharge: first 1760 @ 00:00; max 1760 @ 00:00; last 1390 @ 22:45; low 1390 @ 22:30; sub-cycle 1630 @ 05:45 → 1660 @ 07:30 (+30 cfs).
Harriet (07056700): Height: (a) first 6.30 @ 00:00; (b) max 6.30 @ 00:00; (c) last 5.83 @ 22:45; (d) intraday low 5.83 @ 22:30; (e) sub-cycle: 5.96 @ 13:15 → 5.98 @ 14:15/14:30/15:00 (+0.02 ft); larger micro-rebound 5.97 → 5.99 @ 12:15/12:45. Otherwise recession. Discharge: 2440→1930; intraday low 1930; sub-cycle 2060 @ 13:15 → 2090 @ 14:15–15:00 (+30 cfs).
Richland (07055875) height: (a) first 2.34 @ 00:00; (b) max 2.35 @ 00:15; (c) last 1.98 @ 23:00; (d) intraday low 1.98 @ 23:00; (e) +0.01 micro-bumps only — pure recession.
Bear Creek (07056515): Height: (a) first 3.10 @ 00:00; (b) max 3.38 @ 04:00–04:30; (c) last 3.03 @ 23:15; (d) intraday low 3.03 @ 23:15; (e) low→peak: 3.07 @ 02:00–02:30 → 3.38 @ 04:00 = +0.31 ft in ~1.75 hr — clear delayed pulse from Event 17 forcing. Discharge: first 155 @ 00:00; max 256 @ 04:00–04:30; low 135 @ 23:15; low→peak: 146 @ 01:30–02:30 → 256 @ 04:00 = +110 cfs in 1.5 hr (+75%).
Today (Day 94) is functionally rain-free across the watershed. Basin-max 24-hr QPE is 0.061" in the Ponca zone, concentrated in Beech Creek (HUC 0202: 0.155", peak 0.086" @ 19:02 CDT) with trace amounts (0.027") in Smith Creek. Every other zone shows <0.01" totals. This is a recession/propagation day — the relevant forcing is yesterday's Event 17 (Day 93, 6/1), which delivered Cove Cr 1.022", Falling Water 0.934", Dry Cr-Buffalo 0.801", Hoskin 0.777", Henson 0.782" with peak intensities at 22:02–00:02 CDT.
Source attribution for the Bear Creek pulse: Event 17 deposited 0.550" on Headwaters Bear Cr (HUC 0403) and 0.665" on Outlet Bear Cr (HUC 0404), with peak 1-hr intensities 0.414"–0.537" @ 23:02–00:02 CDT on Day 93. This is the source — no other zone QPE could explain a Bear Cr rise this morning.
Bear Creek (today's flagship pair): - Zone QPE total: 0.608" zone-averaged (Day 93 Event 17). - Peak 1-hr QPE timing: ~23:02–00:02 CDT (Day 93→94 boundary). - Peak gauge response: 3.38 ft / 256 cfs @ 04:00 CDT (Day 94). - Lag time (peak QPE → peak gauge): ~4.0 hours (using 00:02 CDT peak QPE → 04:00 CDT peak height). - Transfer ratio (height): 0.31 ft rise / 0.608" zone QPE = 0.51 ft/in. - Transfer ratio (discharge): 110 cfs / 0.608" = 181 cfs/in. - Antecedent: moist-to-wet, Bear-zone 7-day = 4.15" (Day 93 onset state) — squarely in the "wet" regime.
Cross-event comparison (Bear Creek transfer history): - Event 12 (D-85, dry-channel post-burst): 0.22 ft/in. - Event 15 main (D-89, very wet, ~4–5" zone QPE): high but compressed by deeper-channel attenuation. - Event 16 (D-91, very-wet, 0.59" Headwaters Bear): 2.08 ft/in, 4.5-hr lag (the highest observed). - Today (Event 17 forcing, wet): 0.51 ft/in, 4.0-hr lag.
The lag (~4.0 hr) is consistent with the Event 16 lag (4.5 hr), confirming Bear Creek's wet-antecedent lag is in the 4–4.5 hr range for moderate convective forcing. However, the transfer ratio is much lower today (0.51 vs 2.08 ft/in) — a >75% reduction. Why? - Event 16 produced concentrated forcing on a single zone (Headwaters Bear 0.59", with stage rising from a low base of 3.54 ft on a freshly-wet channel). - Today's forcing was distributed across both Bear sub-basins (0.55" + 0.665") but started from a HIGHER recession stage (3.07 ft) on an already-recessing wet channel. The rating curve at higher stages requires more volume per foot of rise — the channel is wider. - This suggests transfer ratio is stage-dependent at Bear Creek, not just antecedent-dependent. I will flag this as a refinement to the wet-antecedent model: at low stage (~3.5 ft) → high ratio (~2 ft/in); at moderate stage (~3.1 ft on recession from prior pulse) → lower ratio (~0.5 ft/in).
This is >30% deviation from Event 16, but I now attribute it to stage/rating-curve geometry rather than antecedent moisture. Refined hypothesis: Bear Cr wet-antecedent transfer = 0.5–2.0 ft/in depending on initial stage and forcing concentration.
Today's mainstem chain shows pure recession — no propagation event to analyze on the Boxley→Harriet axis. The Pruitt zone Event 17 forcing (1.02" Cove Cr) should be propagating through Pruitt today, but the response is dwarfed by the recession from prior days' much larger flow. Pruitt remained essentially flat-to-declining (4.47 → 4.25 ft), suggesting either (a) the Pruitt-zone rain partially infiltrated under the moderately-wet but not saturated 4.37" Cove Cr antecedent, or (b) the contribution was small relative to the ~300 cfs baseline still draining from Event 15.
The St. Joe sub-cycle bump at 06:45–08:00 (+0.03 ft, +30 cfs) is interesting — its timing is consistent with Pruitt-routed Event 17 runoff arriving at St. Joe (~7–8 hr Pruitt→St. Joe at moderate flow, with Pruitt response leading edge at 19:00 CDT Day 93, predicted arrival 02:00–03:00 Day 94). The bump arrived a few hours later than that prediction, which may reflect the slow rise at Pruitt (Pruitt never peaked clearly — it just flattened around 4.46–4.47).
Event 17 — onset Day 93, propagation Day 94 (today), COMPLETE on Bear Creek.
Event 17 final summary now possible for Bear Creek: - Forcing: 0.55" + 0.665" across Bear zone (0.608" averaged), peak intensity ~23:02–00:02 CDT. - Response: 3.07 → 3.38 ft, 146 → 256 cfs. - Lag: 4.0 hr. - Transfer: 0.51 ft/in, 181 cfs/in. - Antecedent: wet (4.15" 7-day).
For the mainstem chain, Event 17 produced minimal response because the wet-antecedent infiltration was already largely exhausted from Events 15+16, and the forcing was insufficient (sub-1" except in three bullseye HUC12s) to drive a propagating pulse on top of the existing 1400–2500 cfs baseflow. This is itself an interesting calibration data point: even on wet antecedent, a ~0.4–0.9" basin-averaged rain doesn't necessarily produce a measurable mainstem signal when the chain is in active recession from a flood-scale event.
Bear Creek transfer ratio dropped sharply between Event 16 and Event 17 forcing despite similar antecedent. This contradicts a pure wet-antecedent model and suggests stage-dependence in the rating curve (or in the effective channel geometry). New hypothesis: Bear Cr transfer ratio at wet antecedent ranges from ~0.5 to ~2.0 ft/in depending on starting stage.
Pruitt non-response to its zone's 1.02" Cove Cr bullseye is striking. Given the 4.37" 7-day Cove Cr antecedent, I would have expected at least a +0.3–0.5 ft response. Instead, Pruitt flatlined around 4.46 ft overnight and immediately resumed recession. Possible explanations: (a) the rain fell late enough that the response is split between Day 93 leading-edge (+0.06 ft already captured) and a small Day 94 main pulse that's being masked by recession; (b) Cove Cr forcing is partly routed through the karst losses noted in local knowledge between Ponca and Pruitt; (c) the 1.02" was spatially concentrated within Cove Cr HUC and didn't translate to the zone average effectively. This deserves a watch item.
Richland gauge dead-flat through entire Event 17 despite 0.93" on Falling Water Cr (HUC 0307). Falling Water peak 1-hr 0.827" @ 00:02 CDT should have produced some Richland response by mid-morning Day 94. None observed. This is consistent with the Day 93 onset note (only +0.05 leading edge by 23:00). Hypothesis: the Falling Water bullseye fell too short and too late in concentrated form; coupled with high antecedent (4.88") having already filled channels above the gauge, the response may have been smaller than expected — or, more likely, the Day 93 evening response saturated quickly and was already in recession by 04:00 today. The Richland gauge has been on a steady recession from 3.06 ft (Day 91) through 1.98 ft today, with no visible Event 17 pulse.