Daily Analysis

Pre-analysis per-gauge facts (today, 2026-06-01 CDT)

• Boxley (height): first 2.49 ft @ 00:00; max 2.49 ft @ 00:00; last 2.32 ft @ 23:30; intraday low 2.32 ft @ 22:45; low→peak rise: none (monotonic decline). Pure recession.
• Ponca (cfs): first 183 @ 00:00; max 186 @ 00:15; last 143 @ 23:30; intraday low 143 @ 22:45; low→peak rise: brief ripples ~150→153 cfs late-day but trivial.
• Pruitt (height/cfs): first 4.75 ft / 405 cfs @ 00:00; max 4.75 ft / 405 cfs @ 00:00; last 4.47 ft / 311 cfs @ 23:30; intraday low 4.46 ft / 308 cfs @ 17:30–18:00; low→peak rise: 4.46 → 4.52 ft (+0.06 ft) / 308 → 327 cfs (+19 cfs) from 17:45 → 19:00, lag 1.25 hr. This is a real sub-cycle pulse responding to today's QPE.
• St. Joe (height/cfs): first 7.43 ft / 2700 cfs @ 00:00; max 7.43 ft / 2700 cfs @ 00:00; last 6.43 ft / 1800 cfs @ 22:45; intraday low 6.55 ft / 1900 cfs @ 17:45; low→peak rise: 6.55 → 6.62 ft (+0.07 ft) / 1900 → 1960 cfs (+60 cfs) from 17:45 → 18:15, lag 0.5 hr — a tiny propagation blip from Pruitt-zone, then recession resumed.
• Harriet (height/cfs): first 7.29 ft / 3620 cfs @ 00:00; max 7.29 ft / 3620 cfs @ 00:00; last 6.33 ft / 2470 cfs @ 22:45; intraday low 6.33 ft / 2470 cfs @ 22:30–22:45; low→peak rise: none meaningful (tiny noise +0.01 ft).
• Richland Creek (height): first 2.54 ft @ 00:00; max 2.54 ft @ 00:00; last 2.28 ft @ 23:00; intraday low 2.23 ft @ 21:15–21:45; low→peak rise: 2.23 → 2.28 ft (+0.05 ft) from 21:15 → 23:00, lag ~1.75 hr — early signal of the heavy Falling Water Creek QPE arriving.
• Bear Creek (height/cfs): first 3.38 ft / 256 cfs @ 00:00; max 3.38 ft / 256 cfs @ 00:00; last 3.12 ft / 161 cfs @ 23:15; intraday low 3.16 ft / 173 cfs @ 17:45; low→peak rise: 3.16 → 3.19 ft (+0.03 ft) / 173 → 183 cfs (+10 cfs) from 17:45 → 18:00, lag 15 min — token early response, peak forcing still in pipeline at day-end.

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1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

Today is a significant rainfall day on a saturated antecedent watershed — but it is a late-day event with most QPE arriving in the final 2–3 hours (peak-1hr times cluster around 22:02–01:02 UTC = 17:02–20:02 CDT, with the heaviest mass falling 22:00–24:00 CDT). The day's response is therefore mostly NOT in today's gauge file; it will arrive tomorrow.

Spatial pattern — broad, multi-cell with two clear bullseyes:

• Pruitt zone (heavy): Cove Cr 1.022" / peak 0.717" 1-hr (highest single-cell intensity today); Hoskin 0.777". Zone total 0.899". This is the dominant Pruitt-feeding signal.
• Ponca zone (moderate): Whiteley Cr 0.466", Smith Cr 0.083" — Whiteley alone is the source.
• Boxley zone: only 0.068" — essentially no forcing.
• Richland zone (heavy, lopsided): Falling Water Creek (HUC 0307) 0.934" with 0.827" 1-hr peak — a true convective bullseye on the lower Richland sub-basin. Headwaters Richland (0306) only 0.249".
• St. Joe zone (moderate, spatially scattered): Henson Cr 0.782", Big Cr-Buffalo 0.517", Flatrock 0.712", Hoskin-overlap, Cane Branch 0.295", Outlet Richland 0.418". Zone total 0.440" but with bright spots.
• Bear Cr zone (moderate-heavy): Headwaters Bear 0.550", Outlet Bear 0.665". Zone 0.608".
• Harriet zone (heavy on north side): Dry Cr-Buffalo 0.801" (peak 0.798" 1-hr), Tomahawk Cr 0.667", Brush Cr 0.419". Zone 0.460".
• Ungauged below Harriet: Bratton 0.573", Davis 0.263", Long Cr 0.272".

This is a wet-antecedent, broad multi-cell convective event that hit late in the day. Antecedent 7-day QPE remains substantial (Falling Water Cr 4.88", Cove Cr 4.37", Bear Cr headwaters 4.68", Cave Cr 5.14", Headwaters Richland 5.07") — the watershed is primed.

2. GAUGE RESPONSES

Most gauges spent the day in continued recession from the Day 91 St. Joe/Harriet rebound peaks and the long Event 15/16 tail. The late-day QPE has only just begun to register at day-end:

• Boxley: 2.49 → 2.32 ft, monotonic. Negligible forcing (0.068"). Sub-threshold non-detection — confirms Hailstone pool-and-drop dry-spell-style behavior under tiny QPE even with wet antecedent.
• Ponca: 186 → 143 cfs, monotonic recession. The 0.466" Whiteley spike has not yet translated.
• Pruitt: Clean recession 4.75 → 4.46 ft (308 cfs) through 17:30, then +0.06 ft / +19 cfs rebound to 4.52 ft / 327 cfs by 19:00, holding ~4.50 ft through midnight. This is the leading edge of the 1.02" Cove Cr / 0.78" Hoskin pulse — first arrivals only.
• St. Joe: Recession 7.43 → 6.55 ft, then a 0.07 ft / 60 cfs bump at 18:15, then resumed decline to 6.43 ft. Bump corresponds to Pruitt's leading edge propagating ~5 hr downstream (consistent with prior estimates).
• Harriet: Pure recession 7.29 → 6.33 ft. No forcing yet visible.
• Richland: Recession 2.54 → 2.23 ft @ 21:15, then +0.05 ft rise to 2.28 ft by 23:00. This is the leading edge of the 0.934" Falling Water Cr bullseye — first arrivals, with the bulk peak still to come overnight/tomorrow.
• Bear Creek: Recession 3.38 → 3.16 ft, then tiny +0.03 ft bump at 18:00 (173→183 cfs), settling back. Token early response; the bulk of the 0.55–0.67" Bear basin QPE arriving at 22:00–00:00 CDT is still in pipeline.

3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS

The day's heaviest QPE landed in the final 2 hours; almost all the response is pending. However, three leading-edge signals are usable:

A. Pruitt zone (Cove Cr 1.02" / Hoskin 0.78"): - Peak 1-hr QPE Cove Cr: 18:02 CDT (0.717"). Pruitt leading-edge rebound 4.46 → 4.52 ft by 19:00 = lag ~1 hr for leading edge. True peak-to-peak lag will be computable tomorrow when the gauge crests. - Leading-edge transfer (very partial): +0.06 ft / 0.9" zone QPE = 0.067 ft/in — but this is just the first 1 hr of response; not comparable yet to prior wet-antecedent Pruitt transfer of 1.4–1.7 ft/in (Event 8) or 1.6 ft/in (Event 10). Awaiting tomorrow's data to compute event transfer. Antecedent matches wet (zone 7-day 4.06–4.37"), so I expect Pruitt to crest somewhere in the 5.8–6.5 ft range by tomorrow morning if 1.4–1.7 ft/in holds.

B. Richland zone (Falling Water Cr 0.934" / zone 0.59"): - Peak 1-hr QPE Falling Water: 19:02 CDT (0.827"). Richland leading-edge rebound 2.23 → 2.28 ft by 23:00 = lag ~4 hr for first arrivals (gauge is downstream of Falling Water). - Transfer: only +0.05 ft so far against 0.59" zone — 0.085 ft/in leading-edge only. Event 13 (Richland-bullseye, Day 87) produced 0.90 ft/in directly in-channel against 0.82" zone QPE. With today's even-larger zone QPE (0.59" zone-avg, 0.93" on Falling Water alone) and wetter antecedent (5.07" vs Event 13's ~3"), I expect Richland to crest considerably higher tomorrow. Forecast: Richland 4–6 ft by morning if Event 13 transfer holds (~0.9 ft/in × 0.59" = ~0.5 ft from this low, or with bullseye-weighting on 0.93" → potentially 0.8+ ft of rise from current 2.28 → ~3.0–3.5+ ft, possibly higher given wet antecedent amplification). - Antecedent comparison: today wet (5.07"), Event 13 also moist (~3"). Today's antecedent significantly wetter → expect transfer at the upper end or above Event 13's 0.90 ft/in.

C. Bear Creek zone (Headwaters 0.55" / Outlet 0.67" / zone 0.61"): - Peak 1-hr QPE Headwaters Bear: 19:02 CDT (0.41"). Tiny +0.03 ft response at 18:00–18:15 = lag <1 hr leading-edge. Token signal only. - Event 16 (Day 91) established Bear Cr transfer of 2.08 ft/in under very-wet antecedent on similar zone QPE (~0.59"). Antecedent today (Bear zone 7-day ~4.15") is slightly less wet than Day 91 (3.4–4.5"), but still wet. Forecast: Bear Cr could rise +1.2–1.5 ft (3.16 → 4.4–4.7 ft) overnight if Event 16 transfer holds. Peak likely 02:00–04:00 CDT tomorrow based on Event 16's 4.5-hr lag and a 22:00 peak QPE arrival.

D. St. Joe small bump: - Pruitt rebound at 19:00 → St. Joe bump at 18:15 — that's actually St. Joe responding ~15 min BEFORE Pruitt peak rebound, so the St. Joe blip is more likely upstream-of-Pruitt or independent local Cane Branch / Flatrock signal. With St. Joe 6-hr max 0.78" and Henson Cr 0.78", this is local St. Joe-zone forcing, not Pruitt propagation. Real St. Joe peak from today's forcing is pending tomorrow.

4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION

No mainstem propagation cascade today — all five mainstem gauges were in recession from prior events. The leading-edge sub-cycle bumps (Pruitt 19:00, St. Joe 18:15) are too small to compute a meaningful velocity. Propagation analysis for today's event will be deferred to tomorrow's report when peaks materialize.

5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS

This marks Event 17 onset — a new wet-antecedent convective event landing on a watershed still in extended Event 15/16 recession. Today's recession baseline at gauge midnight: - St. Joe 6.43 ft / 1800 cfs (was 14,500 cfs at Event 15 peak; now back to optimal range) - Harriet 6.33 ft / 2470 cfs (similar) - Pruitt 4.47 ft / 311 cfs (just barely above optimal threshold of 200 cfs) - Bear Cr 3.12 ft / 161 cfs

All gauges had returned to high-end optimal or low-flow conditions just as Event 17 forcing arrived. The starting state is conveniently low, which will make tomorrow's response a clean wet-antecedent calibration event for transfer-ratio refinement.

6. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES

• Boxley sub-threshold despite wet antecedent: Boxley zone got only 0.068", and the gauge stayed in pure recession with no perturbation. This confirms (yet again) that watershed-area-normalized intensity matters more than antecedent — even a wet basin needs ≥~0.2" to produce a measurable Boxley response. Consistent with prior hypothesis.
• St. Joe bump preceded Pruitt rebound by 45 min — this rules out a Pruitt-routed signal and confirms St. Joe-zone HUC12 forcing (likely Cane Branch 0.30" + Flatrock 0.71" + Henson 0.78" feeding local response 5+ hr ahead of Pruitt routing). This is a useful piece of evidence for St. Joe transfer-function partitioning between local and routed sources.
• The study has now formally ended (Day 90 was 2026-05-29 per config; today is Day 93 = "study + 3"). This is bonus post-study data. The Event 17 onset is a gift — full peak data tomorrow will provide a final transfer-ratio cross-check across multiple zones simultaneously under wet antecedent.