Boxley (07055646): - First: 2.72 ft @ 00:00 - Max: 2.72 ft @ 00:00 (height_max = first reading; pure recession) - Last: 2.49 ft @ 23:30 - Intraday low: 2.49 ft @ 23:15/23:30 - Low→peak rise: none (monotonic recession)
Ponca (07055660): - First discharge: 268 cfs @ 00:00 - Max: 268 cfs @ 00:00/00:15 (pure recession) - Last: 186 cfs @ 23:15/23:30 - Intraday low: 186 cfs @ 23:15 - Low→peak rise: none (monotonic recession)
Pruitt (07055680): - First height: 5.29 ft @ 00:00, discharge 604 cfs - Max: 5.32 ft @ 00:30 (616 cfs) - Last: 4.73 ft @ 23:30 (398 cfs) - Intraday low: 4.73 ft @ 23:15/23:30 - Low→peak rise: 5.29 → 5.32 ft (+0.03 ft) within first 30 min, then monotonic recession. Trivial.
St. Joe (07056000): - First height: 9.64 ft @ 00:00, discharge 5270 cfs - Max: 9.84 ft @ 01:15/01:30 (5550 cfs) - Last: 7.51 ft @ 22:45 (2780 cfs) - Intraday low: 7.51 ft @ 22:45 - Low→peak rise: 9.64 → 9.84 ft (+0.20 ft / +280 cfs) over 1.25 hr — this is the tail of the Day 90 22:45 rebound pulse (Day 90 ended mid-rise at 9.12 ft); peak captured today at 01:15–01:30.
Harriet (07056700): - First height: 8.31 ft @ 00:00, discharge 4980 cfs - Max: 9.02 ft @ 07:00 (6000 cfs) - Last: 7.35 ft @ 22:45 (3700 cfs) - Intraday low (early): 8.10 ft @ 03:00 (4690 cfs) - Low→peak rise: 8.10 → 9.02 ft = +0.92 ft / +1310 cfs over 4 hr (03:00 → 07:00). This is propagation of the Day 90 St. Joe rebound, not new rainfall. - Subsequent recession to intraday low of 7.35 ft @ 22:45.
Richland Creek (07055875): - First: 3.05 ft @ 00:00 - Max: 3.06 ft @ 00:15 - Last: 2.55 ft @ 23:00 - Intraday low: 2.55 ft @ 22:30 onward - Low→peak rise: trivial 0.01 ft early-day wiggle; pure recession otherwise.
Bear Creek (07056515): - First height: 4.28 ft @ 00:00, discharge 907 cfs - Max: 4.28 ft @ 00:00 (pure recession from Day 90 21:30 peak of 4.77 ft) - Last: 3.39 ft @ 23:15 (261 cfs) - Intraday low: 3.39 ft @ 23:15 - Low→peak rise: none.
Today is essentially a dry day. Basin-max 24-hr QPE was 0.040" in the Boxley zone (HUC 0201, Terrapin Branch); every other zone received ≤0.021". Zone totals: pruitt 0.007", st_joe 0.003", richland 0.002", bear_creek 0.003", harriet 0.002". This is well below any detection threshold for any gauge in the study. Today is a pure recession / propagation day from Event 15 (Day 89–90 flood) and the Day 90 rebound pulse.
All seven gauges are in recession from the Event 15 flood and its Day 90 rebound. Two notable propagation features today:
Today's QPE is sub-detection at all gauges. The only meaningful rainfall-response pair is the propagation tail of Event 16 / Day 90 convective forcing → St. Joe and Harriet peaks today.
St. Joe rebound peak attribution: - Forcing: Day 90 (May 30) Cave Cr (0.88"), Outlet Richland (0.88"), Big Cr-Buffalo (0.74"), peak 1-hr QPE 0.852" in Cave Cr at ~16:02 CDT (21:02 UTC). - Peak St. Joe response: 9.84 ft / 5550 cfs at 01:15–01:30 CDT on Day 92. - Lag (peak QPE → peak gauge): 16:00 D-90 → 01:15 D-92 ≈ 9.25 hr. - Total rise from pre-rebound trough (8.57 ft @ D-90 21:30) to peak: +1.27 ft. - Effective zone-averaged QPE for the St. Joe contributing area (Cave Cr + mainstem misc + Outlet Richland subset): ~0.5" zone-averaged (from gauge_zone_qpe_summary D-90 = 0.498"). - Transfer ratio: 1.27 ft / 0.50" ≈ 2.5 ft/in — high, consistent with very-wet antecedent (zone 7-day on D-91 was 3.5–5.1").
Comparison to prior estimates: Hypothesis lists St. Joe transfer ratios only implicitly via the Event 15 flagship event. The 2.5 ft/in figure is at the high end and reflects: (i) very-wet antecedent amplification, (ii) high-intensity sub-zone forcing (Cave Cr 0.85" in 1 hr is convective-cell scale), (iii) the rebound rode atop a still-recessing limb where channel was hydraulically primed. This matches the pattern noted in Event 15 Day 90 secondary pulse where Pruitt (+1.05 ft), Bear Cr (+0.77 ft), Richland (+0.58 ft), Boxley (+1.0 ft) all amplified relative to dry-antecedent expectations. Today's St. Joe value adds a quantitative data point: wet-antecedent St. Joe transfer ratio ~2.5 ft/in for concentrated sub-zone forcing. Confidence: moderate (single event, single zone).
Harriet rebound: - Forcing: Day 90 Harriet-zone QPE 0.536" (zone average), peaks Spring Cr 0.903", Tomahawk Cr 0.689", plus routed contribution from St. Joe pulse. - Peak Harriet: 9.02 ft / 6000 cfs @ 07:00 CDT D-92. - Day 90 peak Harriet-zone 1-hr QPE was 0.710" at ~17:02 CDT (22:02 UTC). - Lag: 17:00 D-90 → 07:00 D-92 = 14 hr. This is a composite lag (local Harriet-zone forcing + routed St. Joe pulse). - Trough-to-peak rise: 8.10 → 9.02 ft = +0.92 ft, against local QPE 0.536" gives transfer ratio ≈ 1.7 ft/in — but this conflates local response with routed pulse from upstream, so the true local-only ratio is smaller.
St. Joe → Harriet routing today: St. Joe peak 01:15 D-92 → Harriet peak 07:00 D-92 = 5.75 hr propagation. This is consistent with the Event 15 main-event routing (St. Joe 01:30 D-90 → Harriet 07:30 D-90 = 6 hr) — confirming ~5.5–6 hr St. Joe→Harriet at moderate-to-high flow. Adds a second data point for this propagation segment.
St. Joe → Harriet (mainstem, 5.75 hr at moderate flow): Peak St. Joe 5550 cfs at 01:15 → Peak Harriet 6000 cfs at 07:00. Consistent with prior Event 15 estimate. Note the discharge actually increased slightly downstream (5550 → 6000 cfs), reflecting (a) lateral inflows from Bear Cr complex still draining, (b) the local Harriet-zone QPE (Spring Cr 0.90", Tomahawk 0.69") adding ~0.5" effective to the 430 km² Harriet zone.
Pruitt → St. Joe: No identifiable propagation pulse today — Pruitt has been in steady recession since Event 15. Pruitt did not show a meaningful rebound from Day 90's Cove Creek forcing (0.197" only), so its absence in today's St. Joe rise correctly attributes the St. Joe rebound to downstream sub-zones (Cave Cr, Outlet Richland, Big Cr-Buffalo) rather than upstream mainstem propagation.
Today is the terminal recession day for Event 15 + Event 16 (Day 90 rebound pulse). Total Event 15+16 footprint at St. Joe: peak 15.05 ft (Day 89 01:30) → trough 8.57 ft (Day 90 21:30, ~2.5-day recession) → rebound peak 9.84 ft (Day 92 01:15) → end-of-day-92 trough 7.51 ft. At Harriet: peak 14.24 ft (D-89 07:30) → trough 8.10 ft (D-92 03:00) → rebound peak 9.02 ft (D-92 07:00) → end 7.35 ft.
Recession rate refinement (St. Joe extended recession, two-regime confirmed): From rebound peak 9.84 ft / 5550 cfs @ 01:15 to end-of-day 7.51 ft / 2780 cfs @ 22:45 = 2.33 ft / 21.5 hr = 0.108 ft/hr and 2770 cfs / 21.5 hr = 129 cfs/hr. This falls between the high-flow rate (0.29 ft/hr near flood) and the flat-tail rate (0.08 ft/hr at low flow) documented in the hypothesis — supports the continuous spectrum of recession steepening with discharge magnitude.
Recession rate refinement (Harriet): Rebound peak 9.02 ft / 6000 cfs @ 07:00 → end 7.35 ft / 3700 cfs @ 22:45 = 1.67 ft / 15.75 hr = 0.106 ft/hr. Discharge: 2300 cfs / 15.75 hr = 146 cfs/hr. Closely matches St. Joe rate at similar flow magnitude.
No surprises. The two-regime recession model holds; St. Joe→Harriet propagation velocity (~6 hr) replicates across two independent peaks within the same week. The fact that St. Joe rebounded +1.27 ft from a Day 90 sub-event with only ~0.5" zone-averaged QPE confirms strong wet-antecedent amplification — the watershed remained primed nearly 36 hours after the Event 15 main peak.
Note on study scope: Today is Day 92, two days past the nominal 90-day study end (May 29, 2026). Today and yesterday should be considered post-study extension days capturing the terminal recession of the flagship event. The study end-state at 23:30 D-92 is: Boxley 2.49 ft (low/below floatable), Ponca 186 cfs (low but floatable threshold), Pruitt 4.73 ft / 398 cfs (optimal-low), St. Joe 7.51 ft / 2780 cfs (optimal), Harriet 7.35 ft / 3700 cfs (optimal), Richland 2.55 ft (below floatable), Bear Cr 3.39 ft / 261 cfs.
Local knowledge cross-check: Boxley 2.49 ft is well below the Hailstone "low but floatable" threshold of 3.7 ft; consistent with the Hailstone "rarely runnable >24 hr" observation — Event 15 took Boxley to ~3.3 ft (Day 89), but never reached Hailstone-runnable level. The flagship watershed-wide flood did not produce Hailstone runnable conditions, confirming the local observation that even major mainstem events do not necessarily produce the very localized headwater conditions needed for that upper section.