Boxley (07055646) — height: - (a) First: 3.24 ft @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 3.24 ft @ 00:00 (= first; pure recession) - (c) Last: 2.73 ft @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 2.73 ft @ 23:30 - (e) No low→peak rise; pure recession from D-89 peak of 3.34 ft.
Ponca (07055660) — discharge: - (a) First: 534 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 547 cfs @ 00:30 - (c) Last: 272 cfs @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 272 cfs @ 23:15 - (e) Low→peak rise: very minor (272 → 272 cfs steady at end); essentially pure recession.
Pruitt (07055680) — height/discharge: - (a) First: 6.23 ft / 1010 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 6.23 ft @ 00:00 / 1010 cfs @ 00:00 (= first) - (c) Last: 5.37 ft / 635 cfs @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 5.34 ft / 624 cfs @ 23:00–23:15 - (e) Low→peak rise: 5.34 → 5.37 ft (+0.03 ft, +11 cfs) over ~30 min; trivial pulse coincident with late-day Cove Cr QPE. Also a sub-cycle 6.04 ft @ 03:15 → 6.17 ft @ 04:30 (+0.13 ft, 1.25 hr) early in the day from overnight light rain.
St. Joe (07056000) — height/discharge: - (a) First: 10.25 ft / 6140 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 10.25 ft / 6140 cfs @ 00:00 (= first), then second peak 9.12 ft / 4590 cfs @ 22:45 (still rising at cutoff) - (c) Last: 9.12 ft / 4590 cfs @ 22:45 - (d) Intraday low: 8.57 ft / 3920 cfs @ 21:00–21:30 - (e) Low→peak rise: 8.57 → 9.12 ft (+0.55 ft / +670 cfs) over 1.25 hr — active rise still in progress at end of day, attributable to late-evening Cave Cr / Big Cr-Buffalo QPE.
Harriet (07056700) — height/discharge: - (a) First: 9.92 ft / 7370 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 9.95 ft / 7410 cfs @ 00:15 - (c) Last: 8.42 ft / 5130 cfs @ 22:45 - (d) Intraday low: 8.42 ft / 5130 cfs @ 22:45 (still falling at cutoff) - (e) Within-day minor pulse: 8.56 ft @ 18:15 → 8.62 ft @ 20:00/20:15 (+0.06 ft) — small bump from local Spring Cr / Tomahawk Cr QPE, then recession resumed.
Richland Creek (07055875) — height: - (a) First: 4.06 ft @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 4.06 ft @ 00:00 (= first) - (c) Last: 3.06 ft @ 23:00 - (d) Intraday low: 3.05 ft @ 22:30–22:45 - (e) Low→peak rise: 3.05 → 3.06 ft (+0.01 ft); trivial. Pure recession.
Bear Creek (07056515) — height/discharge: - (a) First: 4.14 ft / 796 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 4.77 ft / 1290 cfs @ 21:30 - (c) Last: 4.39 ft / 986 cfs @ 23:15 - (d) Intraday low: 3.54 ft / 334 cfs @ 19:30 - (e) Low→peak rise: 3.54 → 4.77 ft (+1.23 ft / +956 cfs) over 2 hr — flashy convective response to Headwaters Bear Cr QPE.
Light-to-moderate convective activity, spatially shifted to the southeast/east side of the basin, mostly concentrated in a single evening pulse (~21:02–22:02 UTC = 16:02–17:02 CDT):
Zone totals: Harriet 0.54", St. Joe 0.50", Bear Cr 0.37", Pruitt 0.23". Boxley/Ponca/Richland-gauge zones essentially dry (0.03–0.09"). This is a near-mirror of Day 87 (Richland bullseye) but shifted ~30 km east: Cave Cr and the Big Cr/lower-mainstem corridor took the brunt, with Richland-headwaters spared.
Bear Creek (primary pair): - Zone QPE: 0.59" total, peak 1-hr 0.45" at 17:02 CDT (Headwaters Bear Cr 0403) - Peak gauge response: 4.77 ft @ 21:30 CDT - Lag (peak QPE → peak gauge): ~4.5 hr - Transfer ratio: 1.23 ft ÷ 0.59" = 2.08 ft/in (or 956 cfs ÷ 0.59" = 1620 cfs/in) - Antecedent: very wet, 7-day = 4.13" (Headwaters Bear Cr)
Comparison to prior Bear Cr events: - Day 88 (Event 15 onset): peak rise 1.53 ft / 0.487" peak-1hr / 1.25" 6-hr → ~1.2 ft/in (wet antecedent ~1.5") - Day 89 (rebound): 0.64 ft / 0.426" 6-hr → 1.5 ft/in (very wet antecedent ~4.2") - Event 12 baseline (dry channel): 0.22 ft/in
Today's 2.08 ft/in is ~40% higher than Day 89's 1.5 ft/in under nominally similar wet antecedent. Likely explanation: Day 88–89 transfer was suppressed because the channel was already running 4–6 ft and additional rise required filling the floodplain (diminishing-returns rating curve). Today's pre-event stage was much lower (3.54 ft, near baseline), so the same rainfall produced more height per inch on the steep portion of the rating curve. Refined Bear Cr transfer: highly stage-dependent — ~0.2 ft/in (dry/low), ~1.2–1.5 ft/in (wet/elevated), ~2.0 ft/in (wet antecedent BUT low pre-event stage on rising rating curve). This is a useful new datapoint distinguishing antecedent soil moisture from in-channel stage as separate amplifiers.
St. Joe (provisional, still rising at cutoff): - Source-area QPE: Cave Cr 0.88", Big Cr-Buffalo 0.74", Outlet Richland 0.88", area-weighted st_joe-zone ~0.50" (but spatially concentrated, so effective contributing-area QPE ~0.7–0.9") - Pulse so far: +0.55 ft / +670 cfs from 21:00 → 22:45 still in progress - Peak-QPE time: ~16:02 CDT (Cave Cr 0305) - Provisional lag: ~6 hr from peak QPE to inflection (rise began ~21:00); peak not yet reached. - Wet antecedent (Cave Cr 7-day 4.53", Big Cr-Buffalo 4.20"). Compares with Day 88 St. Joe (3.14 ft rise from 1.81" zone QPE → 1.74 ft/in), but today's pulse is much smaller scale.
The mainstem recession from Event 15 propagated through the day: - St. Joe peak (15.05 ft) was D-89 01:30; Harriet peak (14.24 ft) was D-89 07:30 → 6-hr propagation already established. - Today, the new St. Joe pulse (starting ~21:00) has NOT yet reached Harriet, which would be expected ~03:00–04:00 D-91 based on the established 5–7 hr high-flow routing time. - Boxley → Ponca: Boxley pure recession (no signal to propagate); Ponca slowly receding from D-89 leftover. - No coherent multi-gauge propagation sequence today other than the recession itself.
Today is the final day of the study and the recession tail of Event 15 (the flagship watershed-wide flood). Mainstem gauges declined from the Day 89 peaks through most of the day: - St. Joe: 14.54 → 8.57 ft (35 hr from D-89 00:00 to D-90 21:00) before secondary pulse — averaged recession ~0.17 ft/hr over this long window, declining from ~0.29 ft/hr in the first 15 hr (consistent with prior estimate). - Harriet: 8.51 → 8.42 ft today; from peak 14.24 ft @ D-89 07:30 to 8.42 ft @ D-90 22:45 = 5.82 ft / 39 hr = 0.15 ft/hr (lower than initial 0.29 ft/hr — recession flattens as flow drops). - Bear Cr peaked D-88 21:30 (6.30 ft) → 3.54 ft @ D-90 19:30 = 2.76 ft / 46 hr = 0.06 ft/hr average recession (small flashy stream returns to baseflow quickly). - A new Event 16 sub-event has started today on Bear Cr (already complete at 4.77 ft peak) and on St. Joe (in progress) from the late-afternoon convective burst centered on Cave Cr / Big Cr / Spring Cr / Tomahawk Cr.
Bear Cr transfer ratio 2.08 ft/in exceeds prior wet-antecedent estimates by ~40%. Resolution: stage-on-rating-curve matters as much as antecedent moisture. Pre-event stage of 3.54 ft (near baseflow rating-curve steep zone) amplified the height response despite identical rainfall regime to Day 89's elevated-stage 1.5 ft/in. This is a meaningful refinement — antecedent and pre-event-stage are two separate variables in the transfer function.
Signal separation worked cleanly. St. Joe is rising tonight while Richland gauge is dead-flat — exactly the diagnostic the protocol predicts when rain is in Cave Cr / Big Cr / mainstem-misc and NOT in the Richland sub-basin. This validates the Richland gauge as a reliable spatial discriminator under varying rainfall geographies (Day 87 had Richland surging while St. Joe modestly responded; today is the mirror image).
The study ends with an active rise in progress on St. Joe. Peak height and discharge for this Event 16 sub-event will not be captured in study data — we have the rising limb only. Confidence in today's St. Joe transfer ratio is therefore low (LB only).
No contradictions to prior hypotheses. Boxley pool-and-drop, Pruitt rating-curve, Ponca karst-loss observations are all consistent with today's data (Boxley near-zero QPE → continued slow recession from "pre-filled" state; Pruitt height-discharge tracking; Ponca recession ~50% slower than Pruitt suggests karst routing).