Daily Analysis

PRE-ANALYSIS PROCEDURE:

• Boxley (07055646): first 2.17 ft @ 00:00; max 2.17 ft @ 00:00; last 2.06 ft @ 23:30; intraday-low 2.06 ft @ 23:00 (and 23:15, 23:30); low→peak rise: none (monotonic decline, 0.00 ft).
• Ponca (07055660): first 118 cfs @ 00:00; max 118 cfs @ 00:00; last 101 cfs @ 23:30; intraday-low 101 cfs @ 21:30; low→peak rise: 101→103 cfs (+2 cfs, ~15 min) — sensor noise only.
• Pruitt (07055680): first 4.22 ft / 238 cfs @ 00:00; max height 4.23 ft @ 00:15 and 240 cfs @ 00:15; last 4.05 ft / 191 cfs @ 23:30; intraday-low 4.05 ft @ 20:00 (recurs); low→peak rise: 4.05→4.07 ft (+0.02 ft) @ 20:30, ~30 min lag — noise.
• St. Joe (07056000): first 5.86 ft / 1370 cfs @ 00:00; max 5.86 ft / 1370 cfs @ 00:00; last 5.34 ft / 1020 cfs @ 22:45; intraday-low 5.34 ft @ 22:30; low→peak rise: 5.34→5.36 ft (+0.02 ft) @ 22:15 within the noise band — pure recession.
• Harriet (07056700): first 5.81 ft / 1910 cfs @ 00:00; max 5.81 ft / 1910 cfs @ 00:00; last 5.35 ft / 1450 cfs @ 23:45; intraday-low 5.35 ft @ 23:45; low→peak rise: minor sub-cycle wobbles (e.g., 5.37→5.38 ft @ 22:30, +0.01 ft) — recession noise.
• Richland Creek (07055875): first 1.98 ft @ 00:00; max 1.98 ft @ 00:00; last 1.75 ft @ 23:00; intraday-low 1.75 ft @ 22:15; low→peak rise: 1.75→1.76 ft (+0.01 ft) @ 22:30 — noise.
• Bear Creek (07056515): first 3.02 ft / 132 cfs @ 00:00; max 3.02 ft / 132 cfs @ 00:00; last 2.82 ft / 88.7 cfs @ 23:15; intraday-low 2.82 ft / 88.7 cfs @ 23:15; low→peak rise: none (monotonic decline).

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1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

Zero precipitation across all 37 HUC12s for the full 24-hr period. Basin-wide QPE = 0.000". This is the second consecutive dry day following Event 17's last cells around 00:00 CDT on Day 94 (2026-06-02). The 7-day antecedent totals are starting to decline meaningfully now that Event 15's window is rolling off — Falling Water dropped from 5.81" (D-94) to 4.87" today, Cove Cr from 5.40" to 5.08", Bear Cr headwaters from 5.23" to 4.74". Still moderately wet basin-wide but trending down.

2. GAUGE RESPONSES

Every gauge in pure recession from Event 17 / residual Event 15+16 baseflow drainage. No within-day peaks worth attributing to rainfall.

Daily falls (first → last): - Boxley: 2.17 → 2.06 ft (−0.11 ft over 23.5 hr) - Ponca: 118 → 101 cfs (−17 cfs, −14%) - Pruitt: 4.22 → 4.05 ft / 238 → 191 cfs (−0.17 ft / −47 cfs / −20%) - St. Joe: 5.86 → 5.34 ft / 1370 → 1020 cfs (−0.52 ft / −350 cfs / −26%) - Harriet: 5.81 → 5.35 ft / 1910 → 1450 cfs (−0.46 ft / −460 cfs / −24%) - Richland: 1.98 → 1.75 ft (−0.23 ft) - Bear Cr: 3.02 → 2.82 ft / 132 → 88.7 cfs (−0.20 ft / −43 cfs / −33%)

All micro-pulses (e.g., Pruitt 4.05→4.07 ft @ 20:30, St. Joe 5.34→5.36 ft @ 22:15) are at or below the noise floor (±0.01–0.02 ft) and not attributable to forcing.

3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS

None — no QPE today. The Bear Cr response from Event 17 (peak 3.38 ft / 256 cfs @ 04:00 Day 94 from 0.608" zone QPE peaking 00:02 Day 94 CDT) was fully captured in yesterday's analysis. No further attribution work.

4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION

No propagating pulse today. The mainstem is in a clean, well-behaved recession — useful as a calibration reference. Decline rates per gauge over the 23-hr window: - Pruitt: ~0.0074 ft/hr / ~2.0 cfs/hr - St. Joe: ~0.022 ft/hr / ~15 cfs/hr - Harriet: ~0.020 ft/hr / ~20 cfs/hr

St. Joe and Harriet falling at near-identical rates suggests the propagation pipeline is now empty — both gauges are seeing their own zone baseflow drain rather than a routed upstream signal.

5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS

This is the terminal recession leg of the Event 15 → Event 16 → Event 17 cascade that began 2026-05-28 (Day 89). Time series since Event 15 peak: - St. Joe: 15.05 ft (D-90 01:30) → 5.34 ft (D-95 22:45) = −9.71 ft over ~141 hr = mean fall ~0.069 ft/hr (highly nonlinear — most decline in first 48 hr). - Harriet: 14.24 ft (D-90 07:30) → 5.35 ft (D-95 23:45) = −8.89 ft over ~136 hr. - Bear Cr from Event 17 peak: 3.38 ft / 256 cfs (D-94 04:00) → 2.82 ft / 88.7 cfs (D-95 23:15) = −0.56 ft / −167 cfs over ~43 hr; recession constant k ≈ ln(256/89)/43 hr ≈ 0.024 /hr (e-folding ~42 hr). Consistent with prior Bear Cr recession estimates.

6. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES

None. Today is the cleanest recession-only day of the study extension — no precipitation, no anomalous gauge behavior, no rating-curve concerns. The five-gauge mainstem chain is converging back toward seasonal-late-spring baseflow values comparable to early-Day 91/92 (pre-Event 17) and approaching the pre-Event 15 state from ~Day 88. Useful as a "clean recession reference" data point.

One observational note worth recording: Bear Cr fell to 88.7 cfs by end-of-day — its lowest CFS since well before Event 15. The fact that Bear Cr drains faster (33% in 24 hr) than St. Joe (26%) and Harriet (24%) is consistent with its smaller drainage area (239 km² vs. 1342 / 2775 km²) producing flashier recession.