| Gauge | First | Max | Last | Intraday Low | Low→Peak Rise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 1.85 ft @ 00:00 | 1.86 ft @ 23:30 | 1.86 ft @ 23:30 | 1.82 ft @ 16:30–21:45 | +0.04 ft (1.82→1.86, ~7 hr) |
| Ponca | 76.7 cfs @ 00:00 | 81.3 cfs @ 23:15 | 81.3 cfs @ 23:30 | 76.7 cfs @ 00:00 | +4.6 cfs (76.7→81.3, lag ~23 hr; net intraday recovery) |
| Pruitt | 3.63 ft / 90.3 cfs @ 00:00 | 3.64 ft / 92.2 cfs @ 00:30; 3.63 again @ 23:30 | 3.63 ft / 90.3 cfs @ 23:30 | 3.57 ft / 79.3 cfs @ 16:30 | +0.06 ft / +11 cfs (16:30→23:30, ~7 hr) |
| St. Joe | 3.97 ft / 353 cfs @ 00:00 | 4.25 ft / 461 cfs @ 08:45–09:45 | 4.12 ft / 409 cfs @ 22:45 | 3.95 ft / 346 cfs @ 00:45 | +0.30 ft / +115 cfs (00:45→08:45, ~8 hr) |
| Harriet | 4.14 ft / 485 cfs @ 00:00 | 4.29 ft / 581 cfs @ 20:45–22:45 | 4.29 ft / 581 cfs @ 22:45 | 4.10 ft / 461 cfs @ 08:45–11:30 | +0.19 ft / +120 cfs (08:45→20:45, ~12 hr) |
| Richland | 2.01 ft @ 00:00 | 2.03 ft @ 01:00 (carryover) | 1.84 ft @ 23:00 | 1.80 ft @ 21:00, 21:30 | +0.04 ft (1.80→1.84, ~2 hr; recession dominant) |
| Bear Cr | 2.51 ft / 44.2 cfs @ 00:00 | 2.51 ft / 44.2 cfs @ 00:00 (carryover); intraday 2.40 ft / 33.5 cfs @ 13:45 | 2.32 ft / 27.0 cfs @ 23:15 | 2.31 ft / 26.3 cfs @ 22:45 | +0.03 ft / +2.6 cfs micro-pulse @ 13:45 (sub-recession blip) |
Today is a major new event (Event 14) distinct from Event 13's Richland bullseye — the spatial pattern shifted to the upper watershed:
Zone QPE 24-hr totals: - Boxley: 0.706" (basin max, peak 1-hr 0.236") — first significant Boxley-zone rainfall in many days - St. Joe: 0.538" (peak 1-hr 0.458" — HUC 050304 Lick Creek) - Ponca: 0.503" (peak 1-hr 0.215") - Richland: 0.447" (peak 1-hr 0.169" — HUC 0306 0.473", 0307 0.420") - Bear Cr: 0.337" - Pruitt: 0.284" - Harriet: 0.187" - Ungauged: 0.194"
Temporal pattern: Bimodal. An early-evening pulse (D-1 ~14:00–16:00 CDT or D0 ~19:00–21:00 CDT, peak 1-hr times labeled 19:02–21:02Z = 14:02–16:02 CDT) hit Lick Creek/Calf/Cane Branch (St. Joe mainstem misc) and Bear Cr / Outlet Bear Cr. A second, larger pulse arrived overnight into D-2 (peak 1-hr time 04:02Z 05/28 ≈ 23:02 CDT D0 / 00:02 CDT D+1) centered on Boxley + Ponca + Little Buffalo zone.
Antecedent: Moist but drying. 7-day Richland 1.16–1.44" (down from 1.97" yesterday); Boxley 0.59"; Pruitt 2.47" → 0.80" (zone). Soils still wet from Events 12–13.
St. Joe — primary event response (Event 13 propagation + Event 14 onset): - Rose from 3.95 ft / 346 cfs (00:45) → 4.25 ft / 461 cfs (08:45–09:45). Rise +0.30 ft / +115 cfs over ~8 hr. - This is the delayed arrival of yesterday's Richland Creek 17,000-cfs… actually +0.74 ft pulse propagating to St. Joe plus contributions from Big Creek headwaters (0.629" HUC 0302), Lick Creek (0.817" HUC 0304, but most of that fell after the St. Joe peak — see below). - St. Joe then began recession (4.25 → 4.12 ft by 22:45), but a late-day inflection at 22:00–22:30 (4.12 → 4.14) suggests early arrival of upstream Event 14 contributions.
Harriet — Event 13 + Bear Cr propagation arriving: - Fell to 4.10 ft / 461 cfs midday, then rose monotonically from 11:30 to 22:45: 4.10 → 4.29 ft / 461 → 581 cfs (+0.19 ft, +120 cfs over ~9 hr). - This rise is St. Joe's morning peak (4.25 ft @ 08:45) propagating downstream, plus Bear Cr's D-1 surge (51 cfs @ 19:30 D-1) routing through. - Bear Cr's own gauge is in recession today — confirming the Harriet rise is propagation from upstream, not new Bear Cr forcing.
Boxley: Sat at 1.82–1.85 ft most of the day (recession), then rose +0.04 ft (1.82 → 1.86) from 21:45 → 23:30. This is the start of Event 14 response to the late-evening Boxley-zone pulse (peak 1-hr ~23:00 CDT). Lag from rainfall onset is short (~30 min–1 hr) since the heaviest rain is still falling at the end of day.
Ponca: Crept up from 76.7 → 81.3 cfs late evening (21:00–23:30), +4.6 cfs. Also start of Event 14 response.
Pruitt: Sat at 3.57–3.64 ft / 79–92 cfs all day (recession), with late-evening uptick (3.57 → 3.63 / 79.3 → 90.3 cfs at 16:30 → 23:30). Crossed below 100 cfs and stayed below most of day — confirming the Day-87 sub-100-cfs crossing trend. Pruitt zone QPE only 0.284" so this is mostly natural recession with mild rainfall response beginning.
Richland: Pure recession from Event 13. 2.01 → 1.80 ft over ~21 hr (steady ~0.01 ft/hr drawdown). Despite 0.447" zone QPE today, Richland did not respond detectably — antecedent moisture was offset by drying soils between events, and rainfall was lower-intensity than yesterday's bullseye.
Bear Creek: Pure recession from Event 13 surge. 2.51 → 2.32 ft (height) / 44.2 → 26.3 cfs over 23 hr. Mild blip at 13:45 (+0.03 ft, +2.6 cfs) corresponds to the early Bear Cr zone pulse (HUC 0404 0.392", peak 1-hr 19:02Z = 14:02 CDT) — but at ~33 cfs the response is small.
Pair A — St. Joe morning peak (Event 13 lagged arrival, Richland-dominant): - Source: Richland sub-basin from D-1 (peak 1-hr 15:02Z = 10:02 CDT D-1). - Peak QPE → peak gauge: Peak 1-hr QPE 10:02 CDT D-1 → St. Joe peak 4.25 ft @ 08:45 CDT D0 = ~22.7 hr lag (peak-to-peak per definition). - Transfer ratio: Richland zone D-1 QPE 0.819" → St. Joe +0.30 ft (over D-1 EOD pre-event 4.11 ft → 4.25 ft total +0.14 ft above carryover, or use intraday +0.30 ft) = 0.37 ft/in using full intraday rise; +25 cfs/in net above carryover baseline. - Cross-event comparison: This is the first measured Richland → St. Joe transfer pair. Event 12 had spatially-shifting forcing without a clean Richland-only signature. The 22-hr lag is consistent with Richland → St. Joe routing distance + the channel travel time observed in Event 11 (~12–18 hr for headwater rainfall to St. Joe). Antecedent: moist (Richland 1.97" D-1). - Note: This is conservative — some of the St. Joe rise also comes from Lick Cr (0.817" today, but mostly after the peak) and Big Cr headwaters (0.629" today). The clean signal here is yesterday's Richland forcing.
Pair B — Harriet afternoon-evening rise (St. Joe propagation + Bear Cr contribution): - Source: St. Joe morning peak propagating downstream; Bear Cr D-1 surge routing through (peak 19:30 D-1 → contribution at Harriet ~D0 afternoon). - Peak QPE → peak gauge: Richland D-1 15:02Z (10:02 CDT D-1) → Harriet 4.29 ft @ 20:45 CDT D0 = ~34.7 hr lag for the upstream Richland signal. Bear Cr peak QPE 15:02Z D-1 (10:02 CDT D-1) → Harriet peak = ~34.7 hr (coincidentally same). - Transfer ratio (combined): Hard to disaggregate. Using Harriet zone + upstream contributing flow: Harriet +0.19 ft net, combined upstream forcing (Richland 0.819" + Bear 0.382" D-1 weighted) ~0.5–0.6" effective → ~0.32–0.38 ft/in. Roughly consistent with Event 12 Harriet transfer (~0.3–0.4 ft/in moist).
Pair C — Boxley late-evening response (Event 14 onset): - Source: Boxley zone D0 peak 1-hr 0.236" at 04:02Z 05/28 = 23:02 CDT D0. - Peak QPE → peak gauge: Peak QPE 23:02 CDT → Boxley still rising at 23:30 (1.86 ft) — peak not yet reached, response will continue into D+1. Tentative lag estimate <1 hr to onset of rise (rise began ~21:45–22:00, before the labeled peak 1-hr) — suggests the labeled peak 1-hr is end-of-day boundary effect, and effective rainfall onset was earlier. - Transfer ratio: Cannot finalize until D+1 brings the peak. Currently 0.706" → +0.04 ft so far = 0.06 ft/in (incomplete). - Cross-event comparison: Boxley has been a serial non-detector (4+ consecutive events). This is the first measurable Boxley response in many events, likely because: (1) QPE finally exceeded ~0.5" zone-averaged with intense burst (0.236" peak 1-hr), (2) the "pool and drop" pre-fill from prior moist conditions reduces dry-spell pool-storage delay. Boxley's 7-day antecedent of 0.59" is moderate — wetter than the long dry spells where Boxley showed no response. - Local knowledge alignment: Pool-and-drop pre-fill helps explain why this event is producing a Boxley response while equally-sized prior events did not.
Pair D — Bear Creek intraday micro-pulse: - Source: HUC 0404 (Outlet Bear Cr) 0.392" with 0.205" peak 1-hr at 19:02Z = 14:02 CDT. - Lag: 14:02 CDT QPE peak → +0.03 ft Bear Cr blip ~13:45 (slightly before labeled peak — likely peak 1-hr ends at the labeled time, so rainfall was falling 13:00–14:00) = essentially concurrent, <1 hr lag. - Transfer ratio: 0.337" zone → +0.03 ft = 0.09 ft/in (or +2.6 cfs / 0.337" = 7.7 cfs/in). Dramatically smaller than Event 13's 0.94 ft/in / 82 cfs/in. Why? Bear Cr is in active recession from a 51-cfs peak, and the much smaller QPE today produced only a transient sub-recession blip rather than an event-scale surge. This is consistent with diminishing-returns transfer behavior at low forcing.
Mainstem cascade for Event 13 (Richland-bullseye continuing through D88): - Richland peak: 13:00–13:30 CDT D-1 (yesterday) - St. Joe peak: 08:45 CDT D0 today → ~19.5 hr from Richland tributary peak to St. Joe peak - Harriet peak: 20:45 CDT D0 today → ~12 hr St. Joe → Harriet propagation
The St. Joe → Harriet 12-hr time is consistent with prior moist-antecedent mainstem routing (Event 11–12 showed 9–14 hr range for this segment). Velocity estimate: ~50–60 river km / 12 hr ≈ 4–5 km/hr (1.1–1.4 m/s) typical low-to-moderate moist-antecedent routing.
Note: Boxley/Ponca/Pruitt did NOT participate in this cascade — they remained in recession all day until the late-evening Event 14 onset. This is consistent with the source being downstream of Pruitt (Richland tributary, plus Big Cr/Lick Cr forcing today contributing).
Event 14 (just beginning) propagation cannot yet be traced. Boxley first rise at ~21:45 CDT, Ponca uptick by 23:00–23:30. Pruitt may already be receiving early contribution (3.57 → 3.63 by 23:30). Full cascade will develop on Day 89.
Event 13 completing today; Event 14 beginning today.
Event 13 total magnitudes (now closed at D0 EOD): - Richland: 1.49 → 2.18 ft peak → recovering to 1.80 ft (full rise +0.74 ft, full recession ~0.38 ft). - St. Joe: 4.11 → 4.25 ft peak (+0.14 ft net above carryover; +0.30 ft intraday from D0 morning low). - Harriet: 4.26 → 4.29 ft peak (+0.03 ft net above pre-event D86 EOD; +0.19 ft intraday from D0 low). - Bear Cr: 2.21 → 2.57 ft peak → 2.32 ft (full rise +0.36 ft, partial recession).
Event 14 forcing summary (in progress): - Bimodal pulse: early Bear Cr / Lick Cr at ~14:00 D0, then heavy Boxley / Ponca / Little Buffalo concentrated 21:00–24:00 D0. - Major Lick Cr forcing: HUC 050304 0.817"/24hr with 0.458" peak 1-hr at 15:02 CDT D0 — this will hit St. Joe overnight/D+1 morning. Mainstem misc HUC 050309 (Cane Branch) 0.607"/24hr with 0.301" peak 1-hr. Combined St. Joe-zone forcing for D+1 response is substantial. - Boxley zone 0.706" with intense peak 1-hr 0.236" suggests Boxley response continuing strongly into D+1.
Boxley showing first measurable response in many events. This deserves explicit attention given local knowledge about pool-and-drop fill. The 7-day antecedent (0.59") suggests Boxley's tributary section had enough recent water to keep the pools partly filled, lowering the threshold for downstream gauge response. Confidence in pool-and-drop hypothesis increases.
St. Joe transfer ratio for Richland-only forcing (~0.37 ft/in) is LOWER than expected. Event 13's Richland response was 0.90 ft/in directly on the Richland gauge; the routed signal at St. Joe is much attenuated. This is geometrically reasonable (Richland 174 km² out of 1,932 km² St. Joe drainage = 9% of contributing area), but the explicit ratio measurement is new and useful for forecasting — a 1" Richland-bullseye event should produce ~0.3–0.4 ft St. Joe response.
Harriet eclipsed its Event 13 carryover peak. Harriet reached 4.29 ft today, exceeding the 4.26 ft D86 EOD baseline. Event 13's true Harriet response is now measurable as a delayed signal at +0.03 ft / +27 cfs net rise — modest but real.
Event 14 is starting from much drier conditions than Event 13. 7-day antecedent dropped sharply (Richland 1.97" → 1.16", Pruitt 2.47" → 0.80"). If Event 14 produces a strong response, it provides a valuable dry-antecedent comparison to Event 13's moist-antecedent forcing for the same gauges. Watch Boxley/Ponca/Pruitt response carefully tomorrow.
No flood threat developing. All gauges in "Optimal" or "Low but Floatable" range. Event 14 forcing is moderate, not threshold-breaking.