| Gauge | First | Max | Last | Intraday Low | Low→Peak Rise (lag) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 1.88 @ 00:00 | 1.88 @ 00:00 | 1.85 @ 23:30 | 1.84 @ 15:15 | 1.84→1.85 (+0.01, ~8 hr) — pure recession with noise |
| Ponca | 81.3 @ 00:00 cfs | 81.3 @ 00:00 | 76.7 @ 23:30 | 76.7 @ 22:00 | none — monotonic recession |
| Pruitt | 3.72 ft / 108 cfs | 3.73 ft @ 00:30 / 111 cfs @ 00:30 | 3.63 ft / 90.3 cfs @ 23:30 | 3.63 ft @ 23:30 / 90.3 cfs | 3.65→3.68 ht (+0.03, ~7 hr from 06:45 low to 13:45) and 96.2→100 cfs micro-pulse, also a late-day 92.2→94.2 cfs sub-pulse (~21:00); both <1% noise |
| St. Joe | 4.11 ft / 405 cfs @ 00:00 | 4.12 ft @ 00:15 / 409 cfs @ 00:15 | 4.00 ft / 364 cfs @ 22:45 | 3.98 ft @ 19:30 / 356 cfs | 3.98→4.00 ht @19:30→22:15 (+0.02, ~3 hr) and 356→364 cfs |
| Harriet | 4.25 ft / 555 cfs @ 00:00 | 4.25 ft / 555 cfs @ 00:00 | 4.15 ft / 491 cfs @ 22:45 | 4.15 ft @ 21:45 / 491 cfs | 4.21→4.22 ht @10:45→11:15 (+0.01, ~0.5 hr noise); no real low→peak rise |
| Richland Cr | 1.48 ft @ 00:00 | 2.18 ft @ 13:00, 13:30 | 2.04 ft @ 23:00 | 1.44 ft @ 08:00, 08:30 | 1.44→2.18 = +0.74 ft in ~5 hr (08:00→13:00) |
| Bear Creek | 2.21 ft / 19.8 cfs @ 00:00 | 2.57 ft / 51.0 cfs @ 19:30–20:30 | 2.52 ft / 45.3 cfs @ 23:15 | 2.21 ft (sustained through 17:30) / 19.8 cfs | (a) 2.21→2.26 +0.05 ft @ 10:00 mini-pulse; (b) 2.21→2.57 +0.36 ft, +31.2 cfs in ~2 hr (17:30→19:30) — MAIN RESPONSE |
Event 13 has begun — first significant forcing since Event 12. Widespread convective rainfall basin-wide, but with a sharp concentration over Richland Creek headwaters (HUC12 0307 Falling Water Creek: 0.942"/24-hr, peak 1-hr 0.466" @ 15:02 UTC = 10:02 CDT; HUC12 0306 Headwaters Richland Cr: 0.695"/24-hr, peak 1-hr 0.372"). Richland-zone QPE: 0.819" zone-cumulative, 0.466" peak 1-hr, 0.912" max 6-hr — far and away the basin maximum.
Secondary concentrations: - Bear Creek HUC 0403 (Headwaters Bear Cr): 0.486", peak 1-hr 0.248" @ 15:02 UTC; zone total 0.382", peak 1-hr 0.248", max 6-hr 0.459". - St. Joe zone: 0.326" zone, with hotspots on HUC 0308 Outlet Richland (0.468"), 0.305 Cave Cr (0.391"), Little Buffalo HUC 0104 (0.382"), Big Cr HUC 0302 (0.360"). - Ungauged: 0.351" zone, with HUC 0504 Boat Cr (0.457"), 0.503 Clabber (0.422"), 0.508 Leatherwood (0.460"). - Pruitt: 0.303" (Hoskin 0207 0.292", Cove Cr 0204 0.314"). - Boxley 0.282", Ponca 0.243", Harriet 0.217".
Timing: convective peaks concentrated 15:02–19:02 UTC (10–14 CDT), with Richland 1-hr peak earliest (15:02 UTC = 10:02 CDT) and lower-watershed pulses later (16–19 UTC). This is a classic afternoon convective spatial-shift event with a strong Richland-headwaters bullseye.
Richland Creek — DOMINANT RESPONSE. Rose from intraday low 1.44 ft @ 08:00 to peak 2.18 ft @ 13:00–13:30, a +0.74 ft rise in ~5 hr (largest single-hour rise +0.38 ft @ 10:45). Attributable directly to the Richland-zone bullseye on HUCs 0307 and 0306. Recession through evening: 2.18 → 2.04 ft by 23:00. Closest approach to the "Low but Floatable" 3.2 ft Upper Richland whitewater threshold seen in study, but still ~1 ft below it.
Bear Creek — MAJOR EVENING RESPONSE. Two distinct pulses: - Mini-pulse: 2.21→2.26 ft (+0.05 ft) @ 09:45–10:00, attributable to the 10:00 CDT convective burst on Headwaters Bear Cr (HUC 0403). Receded back to 2.21 by mid-afternoon. - Main pulse: 2.21→2.57 ft / 19.8→51.0 cfs in just 2 hr (17:30→19:30 CDT). Rise of +0.36 ft / +31.2 cfs. Attributable to delayed routing from the 15:02 UTC (10:02 CDT) HUC 0403 burst — this is a ~7-hr lag if peak QPE → peak gauge, OR it represents a second convective pulse in the early afternoon on Bear Cr that doesn't show in the daily 1-hr peak summary.
St. Joe — minor wobble. Predominantly in recession from Event 12 (4.11→4.00 ft, –0.11 ft net decline). Intraday low 3.98 ft @ 19:30 then a +0.02 ft micro-rise to 4.00 by 22:15. Despite 0.326" zone QPE plus the Richland sub-basin loading (which routes to St. Joe via outlet HUC 0308), no coherent St. Joe rise yet — Richland Creek tributary contribution is still en route downstream.
Harriet — pure recession continuing from Event 12. 4.25→4.15 ft / 555→491 cfs, –0.10 ft / –64 cfs over 24 hr (-2.4% / -11.5% — fastest 24-hr discharge decline observed at Harriet in the study). Despite 0.217" zone QPE and Bear Cr 31 cfs surge, no upward inflection at Harriet by 22:45. Bear Cr surge arrived too late in the day.
Pruitt — recession with noise. Net 3.72→3.63 ft / 108→90.3 cfs. Pruitt has now crossed below 100 cfs ("Too Low" threshold) at 18:30 and EOD discharge of 90.3 cfs. Tiny within-day wobbles (~3 cfs amplitude) align with mid-day pulses but are at the noise floor. Pruitt zone got 0.303" cumulative but no detection — consistent with the moist-but-spread-out pattern that produced the Event-12 under-performance.
Boxley — no detection. Continued slow recession 1.88→1.84 ft intraday low, micro-rise to 1.85 EOD. 0.282" zone QPE produced essentially zero response — third consecutive event-class forcing at Boxley where pool-and-drop behavior dominates. Antecedent moderately moist (7-day 1.46").
Ponca — pure recession. 81.3→76.7 cfs, –4.6 cfs over 24 hr. 0.243" zone QPE produced no detectable rise.
(A) Richland Creek — major dry-antecedent pair (best Richland pair of study): - Forcing: 0.819" zone (HUC 0307 0.942" / 0306 0.695"); peak 1-hr 0.466" @ 15:02 UTC = 10:02 CDT. - Response: +0.74 ft @ 13:00 CDT (peak). - Lag (peak QPE → peak gauge): ~3 hr. - Transfer ratio: 0.74 ft / 0.819" = 0.90 ft/in. - Antecedent: 7-day 1.77" (HUC 0306) / 1.97" (0307) — moist post-Event-12 (NOT dry — soils still wet from 7 days of activity). - Cross-event comparison: Prior Richland pair was the Day 79 micro-pulse (0.16 ft/in, dry-antecedent). Today's 0.90 ft/in is >5× larger than the only prior measurement, but it's at a much larger forcing scale and on moist soils. This is the first Richland transfer-ratio measurement at event-scale forcing (>0.5"), so it's not really a contradiction — it's the calibration anchor we were missing. The reference March 2024 event scaled ~17,000 cfs from 4-8" rain; today's 0.819" → 0.74 ft is qualitatively consistent. - Confidence: medium-high (clear isolated bullseye, clear monotonic rise, good timing). - Proposed Richland transfer ratio (moist-antecedent, event-scale): ~0.9 ft/in. Single point.
(B) Bear Creek — moist-antecedent late-pulse pair: - Forcing: 0.382" zone; HUC 0403 (Headwaters Bear Cr) 0.486" with peak 1-hr 0.248" @ 15:02 UTC = 10:02 CDT. - Response (main): +0.36 ft / +31.2 cfs from 17:30 to 19:30 CDT. - Lag (peak QPE → peak gauge): peak QPE 10:02 CDT → peak gauge 19:30 CDT = ~9.5 hr. This is notably slower than Event 12's ~7 hr Bear Cr lag. Suggests the dominant contribution may be routing from upstream HUC 0403 (centroid 35.80°N) rather than the lower outlet HUC 0404 — consistent with HUC 0403 receiving 0.486" vs 0.404's 0.278". - Transfer ratio: 0.36 ft / 0.382" = 0.94 ft/in; 31.2 cfs / 0.382" = 82 cfs/in. - Antecedent: 7-day Bear Cr ~1.65–2.06" — moist (similar to Event 12: 1.34"). - Cross-event comparison: Event 12 Bear Cr (moist, 0.685" forcing) gave 0.22 ft/in and 14 cfs/in. Today's 0.94 ft/in is ~4× the Event 12 value and far outside the 0.18–0.30 ft/in range from Events 8/10/11/12. Discharge transfer 82 cfs/in vs 14 cfs/in is similarly outsized. Flag: deviation >30%; this is a major anomaly. Possible explanations: (i) high-intensity peak 1-hr (0.248") on HUC 0403 vs Event 12's spread Bear Cr 0.209"; (ii) compounded moist soils — 7 days of activity preceding today saturated near-stream zones, making this effectively a highly-saturated antecedent rather than merely moist; (iii) potential additional un-aggregated rainfall pulse after the daily 1-hr peak that's pushing Bear Cr in the evening. The 17:30 onset of the main rise relative to the 10:02 nominal peak QPE strongly suggests a second forcing pulse later in the afternoon that's compositing into the 24-hr zone total — i.e., the daily 0.382" includes a meaningful contribution after the morning peak that re-energized the response. Refined Bear Cr transfer ratio under highly-saturated antecedent + concentrated forcing: likely 0.4–0.9 ft/in, much higher than the prior 0.18–0.30 range. Tentative new finding.
(C) Mainstem (Pruitt/St. Joe/Harriet/Boxley/Ponca) — non-detection or noise-level only. 0.243–0.326" forcing distributed across each zone produced no coherent rise. Consistent with the Event 12 finding that moderate forcing on moist mainstem requires high temporal concentration to detect.
No mainstem propagation today. Richland's surge is en route to St. Joe but hadn't arrived in coherent form by EOD (St. Joe still in recession with only a +0.02 ft late-evening micro-rise). Expect a meaningful St. Joe pulse overnight tonight or early Day 88, given the Richland +0.74 ft signal and the typical Richland→St. Joe lag of a few hours.
Event 13 in progress — first day of a new event. The Day 86 fully-dry baseline broke today with widespread convective activity. This is independent from Event 12 (Event 12 cleanly ended; recession was monotonic through Day 86).