Boxley (07055646) — height - (a) First: 1.86 ft @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 2.33 ft @ 22:45 (and held to 23:30) - (c) Last: 2.33 ft @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 1.85 ft @ 02:45–04:45 (range) - (e) Low→peak rise: 1.85 → 2.33 = +0.48 ft over ~18 hr (low at 04:45, peak at 22:45)
Ponca (07055660) — discharge - (a) First: 81.3 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 180 cfs @ 22:45 (also 23:30) - (c) Last: 180 cfs @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 81.3 cfs @ 00:00 - (e) Low→peak rise: 81.3 → 180 = +98.7 cfs (+121%) over ~22.75 hr
Pruitt (07055680) — height/discharge - (a) First: 3.63 ft / 90.3 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max height: 8.55 ft @ 13:45; Max discharge: 2610 cfs @ 13:45 (bimodal — second peak 8.45 ft / 2520 cfs @ 18:00) - (c) Last: 6.35 ft / 1070 cfs @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 3.61 ft @ 02:15/03:00/03:15/03:30 (86.5 cfs) - (e) Low→peak rise: 3.61 → 8.55 = +4.94 ft (+2524 cfs) over ~10.5–11 hr (low ~03:15, peak 13:45)
St. Joe (07056000) — height/discharge - (a) First: 4.12 ft / 409 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max height: 12.97 ft @ 22:45; Max discharge: 10,600 cfs @ 22:45 - (c) Last: 12.97 ft / 10,600 cfs @ 22:45 - (d) Intraday low: 4.08 ft @ 03:45 (394 cfs) - (e) Low→peak rise: 4.08 → 12.97 = +8.89 ft (+10,206 cfs) over ~19 hr — still rising at end of day
Harriet (07056700) — height/discharge - (a) First: 4.30 ft / 588 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max height: 8.51 ft @ 23:45; Max discharge: 5260 cfs @ 23:45 - (c) Last: 8.51 ft / 5260 cfs @ 23:45 - (d) Intraday low: 4.30 ft @ 00:00–01:00 (588 cfs) - (e) Low→peak rise: 4.30 → 8.51 = +4.21 ft (+4672 cfs) over ~23.75 hr — still rising
Richland Creek (07055875) — height - (a) First: 1.83 ft @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 8.89 ft @ 16:15 - (c) Last: 5.27 ft @ 23:00 - (d) Intraday low: 1.83 ft @ 00:00 - (e) Low→peak rise: 1.83 → 8.89 = +7.06 ft over ~16.25 hr
Bear Creek (07056515) — height/discharge - (a) First: 2.32 ft / 27.0 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max height: 6.30 ft @ 18:00; Max discharge: 3090 cfs @ 18:00 (bimodal — first peak 5.68 ft / 2250 cfs @ 14:15) - (c) Last: 5.07 ft / 1570 cfs @ 23:15 - (d) Intraday low: 2.32 ft @ 00:00 (27.0 cfs) - (e) Low→peak rise: 2.32 → 6.30 = +3.98 ft (+3063 cfs) over ~18 hr
This is the largest watershed-wide event of the study so far — a massive convective complex impacted the entire basin with the bullseye in the ungauged lower watershed.
Basin totals (24-hr zone): - Ungauged: 4.613" (basin max; HUC 0505 Long Creek at 6.087", HUC 0502 Hickory at 4.701", HUC 0503 Clabber at 4.755", HUC 0504 Boat Cr at 4.697") - Harriet zone: 2.673" (HUC 0409 Spring Creek 3.528") - Richland zone: 2.630" (HUC 0307 Falling Water 2.668", HUC 0306 Headwaters 2.592") - Bear Creek zone: 2.632" (HUC 0403 Headwaters 2.728") - Pruitt zone: 2.599" (HUC 0207 Hoskin 2.807", HUC 0206 Flatrock 2.635" — but Flatrock is St. Joe zone) - St. Joe zone (avg): 2.140" — with HUC 0206 Flatrock 2.635", HUC 0303 Big Cr-Buffalo 2.492", HUC 0305 Cave Cr 2.444", HUC 0302 Headwaters Big Cr 2.445", HUC 0401 Calf Cr 2.479", HUC 0402 Rocky Hollow 2.382" - Ponca: 1.173"; Boxley: 0.954"
Peak intensities (1-hr): - HUC 0502 Hickory: 1.603"/hr @ 11:02 CDT (16:02Z) - HUC 0505 Long Cr: 1.584"/hr @ 11:02 - HUC 0503 Clabber: 1.088"/hr; HUC 0504 Boat Cr: 1.074"/hr; HUC 0506 Davis: 1.029"/hr - HUC 0207 Hoskin: 0.940"/hr @ 13:02 CDT (St. Joe contributing) - HUC 0206 Flatrock: 0.863"/hr @ 13:02 - HUC 0501 Rush Cr: 0.908"/hr @ 11:02
Temporal pattern: Heaviest rain hit the lower/ungauged watershed first (peak 1-hr times ~11:00 CDT / 16:02Z), then shifted upstream through the afternoon (Pruitt/Flatrock peaks ~13:00 CDT, Boxley/Ponca later ~20:00 CDT). The 6-hr maxima at HUC 0505 (4.193") and HUC 0503 (3.378") are extraordinary.
Antecedent: Moderate-wet — Pruitt zone 7-day 1.094–1.247", Richland 1.629–1.858", Harriet 0.896–1.154". Wetter than Event 13 onset but drier than Event 12.
ALL SEVEN GAUGES responded significantly. Five flagged as significant_rise=true.
Boxley: +0.48 ft (1.85 → 2.33). Modest. Local pool-and-drop section probably still filling. With zone QPE 0.954", that's a transfer ratio of ~0.50 ft/in. From local knowledge: 3.2 ft = Boxley-to-Ponca section becomes "low but floatable." Not there yet.
Ponca: +98.7 cfs to 180 cfs (low-but-floatable threshold is 200 cfs). Steady rise through day, still climbing late evening.
Pruitt: BIMODAL — Mode 1: +4.94 ft / +2524 cfs to 8.55 ft / 2610 cfs @ 13:45. Recession to 5.46 ft @ 15:15, then Mode 2: +2.91 ft to 8.45 ft / 2520 cfs @ 18:00. This is the same two-mode response pattern as Event 12, but vastly larger magnitude. Pruitt crossed flood threshold (2000 cfs). Attribution: Mode 1 is the lower-watershed/Hoskin pulse pushing back through Pruitt as backwater + Cove Cr (HUC 0204 2.390") + Hoskin (HUC 0207 2.807") direct runoff. Mode 2 is the later Pruitt-zone-direct peak from the 13:02Z Hoskin maximum.
St. Joe: +8.89 ft / +10,206 cfs to 12.97 ft / 10,600 cfs at end-of-day, STILL RISING. Flood threshold (8000 cfs) exceeded between 22:00–22:15. Steep acceleration began ~20:30 CDT. Attribution: combined Big Creek complex (HUC 0301–0303 ~2.4" each) + Cave Cr (2.444") + Richland propagation arriving + Little Buffalo (HUC 0104 2.478") + Flatrock (2.635") + Calf/Rocky Hollow (2.382–2.479"). This is becoming a Tier 4 flood-scale event.
Harriet: +4.21 ft / +4672 cfs to 8.51 ft / 5260 cfs, STILL RISING. Still well below flood threshold (9370 cfs). Bear Creek arriving + ungauged Spring Cr (HUC 0409 3.528"!) + Brush/Dry/Tomahawk/Water creeks all 2.2–2.6". The ungauged Long Cr (6.087") and Hickory (4.701") are flooding downstream of Harriet but won't reach the gauge — they enter below it.
Richland Creek: +7.06 ft to 8.89 ft @ 16:15, now receding to 5.27. Crossed local-knowledge "high" threshold at 6 ft. Richland-zone QPE 2.630". The 0307 Falling Water bullseye (2.668") drove this. Steep rise (+3.07 ft in one hour 13:45–14:45).
Bear Creek: BIMODAL — Mode 1: +3.36 ft/+2223 cfs to 5.68 ft/2250 cfs @ 14:15. Mode 2: +0.80 ft/+1050 cfs (from local low of 5.50 @ 15:15) to 6.30 ft/3090 cfs @ 18:00. Two distinct convective pulses. Headwaters Bear (HUC 0403) 2.728".
Pruitt (Mode 1): Peak 1-hr Hoskin (HUC 0207) 0.940" @ 13:02 CDT; Pruitt height peak 8.55 ft @ 13:45. Lag ≈ 0:43. Total event QPE Pruitt-zone ~2.6"; rise 4.94 ft → transfer ratio ~1.9 ft/in. Comparison: Event 8 Pruitt wet-antecedent transfer was ~1.4–1.7 ft/in; Event 10 (moist) ~1.6 ft/in. Today's 1.9 ft/in is at the high end (+15–30%). Antecedent moist (7-day 1.094"/1.247" Pruitt HUCs vs Event 12 ~0.8" — wetter). Refined Pruitt moist-antecedent transfer: 1.5–1.9 ft/in, leaning higher when concentrated upstream.
Pruitt (Mode 2): Same Hoskin peak window propagated later; second discharge peak 18:00. Likely backwater/superposition with later upstream Ponca-zone contributions. Lag from Hoskin/Flatrock peak (13:02 Z = ~13:02 CDT? actually 18:02Z = 13:02 CDT) — peak 1-hr Hoskin/Flatrock was 13:02 CDT, but second Pruitt peak is 5 hours later. This is consistent with secondary surge from Ponca-zone delivery (Ponca QPE 1-hr 0.348" peak ~20:02Z = 15:02 CDT) translating downstream.
Richland Creek: Peak 1-hr HUC 0306 0.642" @ 13:02 CDT (18:02Z), peak HUC 0307 0.568" @ 12:02 CDT (17:02Z). Richland gauge peak 8.89 ft @ 16:15. Lag ≈ 3:15–4:13 from zone-avg peak. Rise 7.06 ft on 2.630" zone QPE → transfer ratio 2.69 ft/in. Comparison: Event 13 (yesterday's calibration) was 0.90 ft/in at much smaller scale (0.74 ft on 0.819"). Today's ratio is 3× larger — but Richland zone got 3.2× the rain, and the response is also nonlinear because the channel went from ~1.8 ft (low baseflow geometry) to 8.89 ft (out-of-bank geometry). This is a CRITICAL nonlinearity finding: Richland transfer ratio is highly stage-dependent, jumping dramatically once channel capacity is exceeded.
Bear Creek: Peak 1-hr HUC 0403 0.487" @ 12:02 CDT (17:02Z); Bear Cr Mode 1 peak 14:15. Lag ≈ 2:13. First-mode rise 3.36 ft on ~2.6" zone QPE → ~1.29 ft/in to first peak; total event rise 3.98 ft → 1.53 ft/in. Comparison: Event 13 Bear Cr anomaly 0.94 ft/in (dry-wet antecedent contrast). Event 12 0.22 ft/in. Today 1.29–1.53 ft/in. This is a new high-magnitude data point. Bear Cr also shows clear nonlinearity with stage — out-of-bank flow apparently amplifies rise per inch.
Harriet: Peak 1-hr HUC 0409 0.757" @ 12:02 CDT (17:02Z); Harriet height peak still rising at 23:45 (8.51 ft and climbing). Lag still incomplete; >12 hr so far. Cannot finalize transfer ratio yet — event ongoing.
St. Joe: Peak QPE within zone variable (HUC 0206 Flatrock 0.863"/hr @ 13:02 CDT). St. Joe still rising at end-of-day at 12.97 ft. Lag incomplete (>9 hr from Flatrock peak so far). Transfer ratio incomplete; current rise 8.89 ft on 2.14" zone QPE = 4.15 ft/in already, with more to come. This will likely set a new high-magnitude data point.
Boxley: Zone QPE 0.954", peak HUC 0201 0.236"/hr @ 20:02 CDT (01:02Z next day) — actually the peak window is late in the day. Boxley rise 0.48 ft is still ongoing. Transfer ratio so far ~0.50 ft/in. Comparison: Event 11 dry-antecedent Boxley showed minimal response per pool-and-drop hypothesis; today's antecedent (7-day 1.28") is wetter so faster mobilization. Confirms local-knowledge "pool-and-drop" pattern: now that pools are pre-filled from recent events, even moderate rain reaches the gauge.
Mainstem peak times (per pre-analysis): - Boxley: still rising at 23:30 (peak not yet defined) - Ponca: still rising at 23:30 - Pruitt: 13:45 (Mode 1), 18:00 (Mode 2) — inverted timing because Pruitt-zone direct rain dominated before Boxley/Ponca contribution arrived - St. Joe: still rising at 22:45 (12.97 ft / 10,600 cfs) - Harriet: still rising at 23:45 (8.51 ft / 5260 cfs)
This event does NOT follow simple downstream propagation because the rain fell heaviest in the LOWER watershed (ungauged + Harriet + Bear Cr) early, then progressively upstream through the day. So Harriet/Bear/Richland actually began responding BEFORE Boxley/Ponca got their rain. Cannot meaningfully compute mainstem-to-mainstem propagation velocity from today's data because (a) most gauges still rising, (b) rain didn't move downstream first.
Once Boxley/Ponca peak in the next 24 hours, that wave will propagate down on top of the already-elevated mainstem. Pruitt→St. Joe routing of the 13:45 Pruitt peak: St. Joe started its steep climb ~20:30, so Pruitt→St. Joe lag ≈ 6.75 hr for this magnitude flow. Comparison: Event 8 wet-antecedent Pruitt→St. Joe was ~5–7 hr; consistent.
This is Event 14, Day 2 (the main event day). Day 88 (yesterday) was the prologue: 0.54" St. Joe zone (Lick Cr 0.817"), 0.71" Boxley, scattered. Today is the main forcing. Tomorrow (Day 90, final study day) will show the mainstem wave at Boxley/Ponca peaking and propagating, plus St. Joe and Harriet completing their rises.
Two-day cumulative QPE (Days 88+89): - Pruitt: 0.28 + 2.60 = ~2.88" - St. Joe: 0.54 + 2.14 = ~2.68" - Richland: 0.45 + 2.63 = ~3.08" - Bear: 0.34 + 2.63 = ~2.97" - Harriet: 0.19 + 2.67 = ~2.86" - Ungauged: 0.19 + 4.61 = ~4.80"
This is the largest two-day cumulative QPE of the study.
Ungauged-watershed concentration: Basin maximum QPE (4.61" zone, 6.09" single HUC) fell in the UNGAUGED region downstream of Harriet. This rain won't reach any USGS gauge in our network. The Long Cr HUC 0505 received 6.087" with 1.584"/hr peak intensity — this is approaching reference Event (March 2024) magnitudes. Communities below Harriet would have experienced potentially dangerous flash flooding invisible to our gauge instruments. This is a critical study limitation worth flagging.
Pruitt bimodal again, but Mode 2 nearly equals Mode 1: In Event 12, Mode 2 was much smaller. Today Mode 1 was 8.55 ft, Mode 2 was 8.45 ft — essentially equal. The Pruitt section gets two near-identical pulses when both Pruitt-zone direct AND backed-up upstream contributions arrive within hours.
Richland nonlinearity quantified: Stage-dependent transfer ratio jumped from 0.90 ft/in (in-channel, Event 13) to 2.69 ft/in (out-of-bank, today). This is roughly the channel-geometry effect plus saturation effect.
Bear Creek response 3× larger than Event 13: Today's Bear discharge peak (3090 cfs) vs. Event 13 (~51 cfs). Yet zone QPE was only ~6.9× larger (0.38"→2.63"). Bear Cr is showing a strong nonlinearity at high flow.
St. Joe approaching Tier 4: Crossed flood threshold (8000 cfs) at ~22:15 CDT. At 10,600 cfs and rising at 22:45, peak will likely exceed 12,000–15,000 cfs tomorrow morning — Tier 4 flood-scale, the largest event of the study, and the only one to flood-test the major mainstem gauges.
No detectable rating-curve lag visible yet — discharge rises tracked height rises closely. Field crews may be ahead of this given recent activity.