Pre-analysis per-gauge facts (today, 2026-05-23):
| Gauge | First | Max | Last | Intraday Low | Low→Peak Rise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 2.09 ft @ 00:00 | 2.09 ft @ 00:00 | 2.03 ft @ 23:30 | 2.03 ft @ 21:45 | none (pure recession) |
| Ponca | 105 cfs @ 00:00 | 105 cfs @ 00:00 | 97.8 cfs @ 23:30 | 97.8 cfs @ 19:30 | none (pure recession) |
| Pruitt | 3.87 ft / 143 cfs @ 00:00 | 3.88 ft / 145 cfs @ 02:30 | 3.84 ft / 136 cfs @ 23:30 | 3.79 ft / 124 cfs @ 14:00 | +0.06 ft / +14 cfs (3.79→3.85 @ 20:15), lag ~6.25 hr from intraday low; +0.08 ft / +19 cfs to 3.87 @ 21:30 |
| St. Joe | 4.40 ft / 525 cfs @ 00:00 | 4.40 ft / 525 cfs @ 00:00 | 4.24 ft / 457 cfs @ 22:45 | 4.24 ft @ 22:45 | none (pure recession with minor jitter) |
| Harriet | 4.53 ft / 749 cfs @ 00:00 | 4.55 ft / 763 cfs @ 00:30 | 4.37 ft / 635 cfs @ 22:45 | 4.36 ft / 628 cfs @ 20:00 | +0.04 ft / +28 cfs (4.36→4.40 @ 21:00), lag ~1 hr |
| Richland | 1.84 ft @ 00:00 | 1.84 ft @ 00:00 | 1.72 ft @ 23:00 | 1.71 ft @ 22:15 | minor +0.01 ft jitter (1.71→1.72 @ 22:30) — pure recession |
| Bear Cr | 2.18 ft / 18.1 cfs @ 00:00 | 2.33 ft / 27.8 cfs @ 22:00+ | 2.33 ft / 27.8 cfs @ 23:15 | 2.18 ft @ 00:00 | +0.15 ft / +9.7 cfs (2.18→2.33), ongoing rise |
Day 84 brought a second consecutive day of convective rainfall with a notably shifted spatial pattern compared to Day 83. Today's heaviest QPE concentrated in the Pruitt zone (0.319" 24-hr, 0.220" peak-1hr in Cove Cr HUC 0204) and upper Ponca/Whiteley area (HUC 0205: 0.341"), with a secondary core in Big Creek-Buffalo (HUC 0303: 0.302", peak 0.258" in 1 hr at 01:02 UTC = 20:02 CDT on D83 / 00:02 CDT D24). Peak 1-hr intensities mostly concentrated late evening (20:02–04:02 UTC = 15:00–23:00 CDT today). Notable:
Spatial inversion from D83: Yesterday Bear Cr/Harriet were the wettest zones (0.685"/0.563"); today they are among the driest. The convective focus shifted northwest to the upper/middle mainstem corridor (Pruitt-Whiteley-Cave Cr-Big Cr axis).
Bear Creek is the headline response: a steady +0.15 ft / +9.7 cfs rise from 2.18 ft @ 00:00 to 2.33 ft @ ~22:00, still rising at EOD. This is delayed continuation of Day 83's Bear Cr rainfall (0.685" zone-24hr), not today's QPE (only 0.068"). The rise began around 12:30 CDT — roughly 22 hours after the D83 peak 1-hr at ~09:02 CDT. Discharge climbed from 18.1 to 27.8 cfs (54% increase).
Pruitt showed a clear evening pulse: bottomed at 3.79 ft / 124 cfs @ 14:00 (study-period low for current recession), then rose +0.08 ft / +19 cfs to 3.87 ft / 143 cfs @ ~21:30. This is the first response to today's Pruitt-zone forcing (0.319" 24-hr, peak 1-hr at 20:02 UTC = 15:02 CDT). Lag from peak 1-hr QPE (15:02 CDT) to peak response (~21:30) = ~6.5 hr.
Boxley, Ponca, St. Joe, Richland, Harriet: all in continued recession from Event 12 / Event 11 tails. Minor Harriet jitter (+0.04 ft @ 21:00) coincides with light Harriet-zone QPE evening pulse — likely real micro-response.
Pair A — Pruitt today: - Zone QPE 24-hr: 0.319"; peak 1-hr: 0.220" @ 15:02 CDT - Response: +0.08 ft / +19 cfs (low→peak), peak ~21:30 CDT - Lag: ~6.5 hr (peak QPE → peak gauge) - Transfer ratio: 0.25 ft/in or ~60 cfs/in - Antecedent: 7-day Pruitt zone ~2.16" (very moist, post-Event-12) - Comparison to prior: Pruitt Event 11 (dry-antecedent 0.07" 7-day): 0.61 ft/in, 22-hr lag. Pruitt Event 12 onset: no detection. Today's 0.25 ft/in is lower than Event 11 but Event 11 had a much larger forcing (1.93" zone). Lag is much shorter (~6.5 hr vs 22 hr), consistent with wet antecedent → faster, more efficient runoff routing. The lower transfer ratio likely reflects that the rise is still climbing (not yet peaked) AND that the gauge is well into recession baseline. Confidence: medium-low, response may not be complete at EOD. Local-knowledge note: scoured channel at Pruitt may dampen low-flow rise expression.
Pair B — Bear Creek (continuation from D83): - D83 zone QPE: 0.685", peak 1-hr 0.209" @ 09:02 CDT - D83 immediate response: +0.05 ft / +2.8 cfs @ 09:30 (~28 min lag, transfer 0.073 ft/in) - D84 delayed response: additional +0.15 ft / +9.7 cfs from 12:30 onward - Total Event 12 Bear Cr response: +0.17 ft (2.16→2.33), +10.8 cfs (17→27.8) - Revised transfer ratio: 0.25 ft/in or ~16 cfs/in for the full event - Lag from D83 peak QPE to D84 peak: ~37 hr (slow, second-wave delayed delivery) - Antecedent D83: moist (1.34" 7-day) - Comparison to prior: This is a major upward revision from the initial 0.073 ft/in lower bound. Event 11 Bear Cr was 0.09 ft/in (dry-antecedent anomaly). Today's wet-antecedent value of 0.25 ft/in is ~2.8× the Event 11 value, fully consistent with the expected wet-vs-dry amplification. Bear Cr now has its first credible moist-antecedent transfer-ratio data point. Flag: deviation >30% from initial D83 lower bound — this is expected refinement, not contradiction (yesterday's value was explicitly a lower bound on an in-progress response).
No coherent mainstem propagation cascade today. Boxley, Ponca, St. Joe all in pure recession; only Pruitt registered a localized response from direct Pruitt-zone forcing. The rise at Pruitt did not propagate downstream visibly to St. Joe by EOD (St. Joe still falling at 22:45). Expected Pruitt→St. Joe lag from prior events is ~6–12 hr, so any St. Joe response would appear D85.
Event 12 continuation: Today is Day 2 of Event 12 forcing. Bear Cr rise is the dominant signature, driven by D83's heavy Bear Cr rainfall arriving with substantial delay (~37 hr from peak QPE). This Bear Cr behavior is characteristically slow even at moist antecedent — consistent with the "very slow Bear Cr response" pattern noted in Event 11 (72+ hr peak lag), though today's lag is faster (37 hr) due to wet antecedent.
Cumulative Event 12 forcing (D83+D84) by zone: - Bear Cr: 0.685" + 0.068" = 0.753" - Harriet: 0.563" + 0.081" = 0.644" - Pruitt: 0.264" + 0.319" = 0.583" - St. Joe: 0.362" + 0.229" = 0.591" - Richland: 0.443" + 0.036" = 0.479"
Cumulative Event 12 gauge responses to date: - Bear Cr: +0.17 ft total (2.16 → 2.33) - Richland: peaked D83 at 1.85 ft (+0.21 ft, may be complete) - Pruitt: +0.08 ft (3.79 → 3.87) - St. Joe, Harriet, Boxley, Ponca: no positive Event 12 response yet
Pruitt zone responded faster than expected. A ~6.5 hr peak-to-peak lag for Pruitt is much shorter than Event 11's 22-hr lag. The wet antecedent (Pruitt 7-day 2.16", basin's wettest zone) appears to enable rapid throughflow. This is the fastest Pruitt response observed in the study and adds strong evidence to the wet-antecedent → fast-routing pattern.
St. Joe non-response to today's QPE is striking. St. Joe zone received 0.229" with peak 1-hr 0.258" (HUC 0303 Big Cr-Buffalo) — historically enough to produce at least a measurable pulse. Yet St. Joe gauge stayed in continuous recession all day (4.40 → 4.24 ft). Hypothesis: the rain fell on widely-distributed HUCs (Big Cr 0.302", Cave 0.272", Outlet LB 0.440") whose responses are routing in but the residual Event 11/12 recession discharge mass (still 525→457 cfs) is too large for a sub-0.3" pulse to visibly perturb. Expect a measurable St. Joe response D85.
Richland total non-response to Event 12 forcing in its own basin. Richland zone received 0.443" D83 + 0.036" D84 = 0.479" cumulative, yet Richland peaked at only 1.85 ft (+0.21 ft) and is now in pure recession. Compared to Event 11's Richland transfer (0.73 ft/in on 1.32" zone QPE), today's transfer ratio of ~0.44 ft/in is lower despite wetter antecedent. Note: D83 saw 0.443" but Event 11 saw substantially more — Richland transfer ratios may be sensitive to forcing magnitude rather than just antecedent. Flag for further investigation.