Boxley (height ft): - (a) First: 2.03 @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 2.03 @ 00:00 (also 00:15–01:15) - (c) Last: 1.96 @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 1.96 @ 23:30 - (e) Low→peak rise: none meaningful — micro-jitter 1.98→1.99 @ ~19:00 (+0.01 ft). Pure recession.
Ponca (cfs): - (a) First: 97.8 @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 97.8 @ 00:00–08:00 - (c) Last: 91.0 @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 91.0 @ 19:45 - (e) Low→peak rise: 91.0→92.6 @ 20:00 (+1.6 cfs, noise-level). Pure recession.
Pruitt (height/cfs): - (a) First: 3.83 ft / 133 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 3.89 ft @ 10:45/12:00/12:15/12:30/14:30 ; 148 cfs @ 10:45/12:00/12:15/12:30/14:30/20:15-equiv - (c) Last: 3.83 ft / 133 cfs @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 3.79 ft @ 03:00/05:30 ; 124 cfs @ 03:00/05:30 - (e) Low→peak rise: 3.79 → 3.89 ft (+0.10 ft) / 124 → 148 cfs (+24 cfs); low @ 05:30, peak @ 10:45 → lag ~5.25 hr. This is a real sub-cycle pulse.
St. Joe (height/cfs): - (a) First: 4.25 ft / 461 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 4.26 ft @ 00:45 ; 466 cfs @ 00:45 - (c) Last: 4.20 ft / 441 cfs @ 22:45 - (d) Intraday low: 4.19 ft @ 18:00, 19:15, 22:15 ; 437 cfs @ 18:00, 19:15, 22:15 - (e) Low→peak rise: 4.19 → 4.23 ft (+0.04 ft) / 437 → 453 cfs (+16 cfs); low @ 18:00, peak @ 19:30 — small jitter pulse. Otherwise recession.
Harriet (height/cfs): - (a) First: 4.36 ft / 628 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 4.36 ft @ 00:00–02:45 ; 628 cfs @ 00:00–03:00 - (c) Last: 4.29 ft / 581 cfs @ 22:45 - (d) Intraday low: 4.29 ft @ 19:30, 20:00+ ; 581 cfs @ 19:30, 20:00+ - (e) Low→peak rise: 4.29 → 4.30 ft (+0.01 ft, noise). Pure recession.
Richland Creek (height ft): - (a) First: 1.71 @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 1.72 @ 00:15, 07:30 - (c) Last: 1.61 @ 23:00 - (d) Intraday low: 1.61 @ 22:45/23:00 - (e) Low→peak rise within day: 1.69 → 1.72 (+0.03 ft) from ~06:00 low to 07:30 peak — ~1.5 hr lag. Small micro-pulse, but Richland zone QPE today is 0.0". Likely diurnal/local noise, not rainfall-driven.
Bear Creek (height/cfs): - (a) First: 2.32 ft / 27.0 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 2.32 ft @ 00:00–03:15 ; 27.0 cfs @ 00:00–03:15 - (c) Last: 2.26 ft / 22.9 cfs @ 23:15 - (d) Intraday low: 2.26 ft @ 20:30+ ; 22.9 cfs @ 20:30+ - (e) Low→peak rise: none. Pure recession from Event 12 peak (2.33 ft @ D83 22:00–23:15).
Basin essentially dry. Total 24-hr basin-max only 0.164" (HUC 0508 Leatherwood Creek, ungauged below Harriet). A narrow band of light-moderate rain crossed the far lower/ungauged corner in early morning (peak 1-hr ~06:02 UTC = 01:02 CDT): HUC 0508 0.164" (peak 1-hr 0.120"), HUC 0504 Boat Creek 0.107", HUC 0507 0.095", HUC 0309 Cane Branch 0.061". All gauged zones effectively zero (St. Joe 0.008", Harriet 0.006", Pruitt 0.001", Boxley/Ponca/Richland/Bear Cr 0.000"). No mainstem forcing.
All seven gauges in coherent recession from Event 12. New study-period or near-study-period lows: - Boxley: 2.03 → 1.96 ft (–0.07 ft). New lowest reading observed this study (matching the deep recession trajectory). - Ponca: 97.8 → 91.0 cfs (–6.8 cfs). Approaching the Too Low threshold (150 cfs); already well below it. - Pruitt: 3.83 → 3.83 ft net, but with a distinct intraday sub-cycle: 3.83 → 3.79 (early-AM low) → 3.89 @ 10:45–14:30 → 3.83 ft. Net +0.10 ft low-to-peak rise / +24 cfs. - St. Joe: 4.25 → 4.20 ft (–0.05 ft). - Harriet: 4.36 → 4.29 ft (–0.07 ft). - Richland: 1.71 → 1.61 ft (–0.10 ft). Continuing post-Event-12 recession. - Bear Creek: 2.32 → 2.26 ft / 27.0 → 22.9 cfs. Final recession from the long-lag Event 12 peak (2.33 ft, reached D83 22:00).
Notable: the Pruitt sub-cycle pulse. Pruitt-zone QPE today is 0.001" — effectively zero. Yet Pruitt rose +0.10 ft / +24 cfs from 05:30 to 10:45. This pulse cannot be attributed to today's forcing. Two candidate explanations: 1. Delayed Event 12 contribution from Cove Cr / Hoskin Cr (Pruitt zone) D84 forcing (0.319" basin-max in Pruitt zone, peak 20:02 UTC D84 = 15:02 CDT D84). From D84 ~15:00 CDT peak to today 10:45 CDT peak = ~19.75 hr lag. That is plausible for a slow karst/groundwater interflow contribution from Cove Cr after the channel had partially drained. 2. Routing of Event 12 upstream signal (Boxley/Ponca/Whiteley D84 forcing peak ~01:02 CDT D84): Boxley/Ponca did not produce a coherent downstream pulse (Boxley flat, Ponca falling). Unlikely source.
Explanation #1 is favored — this looks like Event 12's second Pruitt response peak, with a longer lag attributable to the dominant Cove Cr subsurface pathway. Provisional.
Pruitt sub-cycle pulse (Event 12 continuation): - Forcing source: D84 Pruitt-zone QPE 0.319" (Cove Cr HUC 0204 0.440"), peak 1-hr 0.220" @ D84 15:02 CDT - Response: Pruitt 3.79 → 3.89 ft (+0.10 ft) / 124 → 148 cfs (+24 cfs), peak D85 10:45 CDT - Lag (peak QPE → peak gauge): ~19.75 hr - Transfer ratio: 0.10 / 0.319 = 0.31 ft/in (~75 cfs/in) - Antecedent (7-day Pruitt zone, D84): ~2.16" — wet/moist - Cross-event comparison: - D84 EOD provisional Pruitt: 0.25 ft/in, ~6.5 hr lag (moist antecedent) - Event 11 (D80, dry antecedent): much larger forcing 1.93", different regime - Event 10 moist: faster lags ~5 hr - Today's number reflects the FULL Event 12 Pruitt response: peak height 3.89 ft is +0.10 ft above the previously-cited 3.87 ft peak. Revising Event 12 Pruitt: cumulative rise from pre-event 4.04 ft is misleading because of pre-event recession — better to measure off Event 12 intraday low 3.79 ft on D84 → 3.89 ft on D85 = +0.10 ft over D84+D85 forcing of 0.319". The fast 6.5-hr lag captured D84 was the surface/initial response; today's secondary peak represents a two-mode response: a fast surface peak and a slower (~19-hr) subsurface/karst peak. This is consistent with the local-knowledge note about scoured channel and karst losses between Ponca and Pruitt. - Confidence: moderate. Today's rise is small (+0.10 ft) and could be partly stage noise, but the consistent 5-hr rise envelope makes it real. Flag for replication.
Richland micro-pulse 06:00 → 07:30 (+0.03 ft): Richland zone QPE today = 0.0", D84 = 0.036". Cannot be attributed to current-day forcing. Likely either residual Event 12 routing from the D83 evening Richland peak (peaked D82 21:30 @ 1.85 ft) — unlikely after 30+ hr — or diurnal stage noise. Not a valid rainfall-response pair. Note for record.
No mainstem propagation today. Pruitt's intraday rise (10:45 peak) did not propagate to St. Joe (St. Joe in clean recession, max 4.26 ft @ 00:45 from carryover) or Harriet (max @ 00:00). This is consistent with the Pruitt pulse being a small local sub-event swamped by the dominant Event 12 recession on the larger downstream gauges; +24 cfs at Pruitt is well below the noise floor for an 8000-cfs-capacity gauge like St. Joe.
Event 12 — COMPLETING: - All gauges now in coherent recession except for the small Pruitt sub-cycle pulse documented above. - Final Event 12 peaks (revised): - Boxley: 2.14 ft (D83 00:00 carryover) — no Event 12 detection - Ponca: 116 cfs (D83 00:00 carryover) — no Event 12 detection - Pruitt: 3.89 ft / 148 cfs @ D85 10:45–14:30 (revised up from 3.87 ft) — total rise from D84 intraday low 3.79 = +0.10 ft over D83+D84 forcing 0.583" = 0.17 ft/in transfer ratio (using cumulative event forcing) - St. Joe: 4.75 ft (D83 00:00 carryover) — no Event 12 detection apart from the D83 09:45 +0.08 ft micro-pulse - Harriet: 4.83 ft (D83 00:00 carryover) — no Event 12 detection - Richland: 1.85 ft @ D82 21:30 (PEAK reaffirmed) - Bear Creek: 2.33 ft / 27.8 cfs @ D83 22:00–23:15 (PEAK reaffirmed; today in clear recession) - Key insight: this event under-performed expectations dramatically. Despite >0.5" zone-averaged forcing at Bear Cr/Harriet and >0.3" at Pruitt with moist antecedent (7-day 1.5–2.4"), the mainstem responses were minimal-to-nonexistent. The St. Joe carryover-recession trajectory was so dominant that even a 0.59" forcing distributed across 14 sub-watersheds didn't reverse the recession. - Revised Event 12 transfer ratios: - Bear Cr: 0.17/0.753 = 0.23 ft/in (~14 cfs/in) — moist antecedent - Pruitt: 0.10/0.583 = 0.17 ft/in (~41 cfs/in) — moist antecedent - Richland: 0.17/0.479 = 0.35 ft/in — moist antecedent - All three are substantially lower than dry-antecedent Event 11 values (Boxley 0.62, Pruitt ratios in 0.6+ range). This is counter-intuitive — see Anomalies.
Anomaly: moist-antecedent Event 12 produced LOWER transfer ratios than dry-antecedent Event 11. - Event 11 (DRY, 7-day Boxley 0.18") Boxley: 0.62 ft/in - Event 12 (MOIST, 7-day Boxley 1.34") Boxley: 0.0 ft/in (no detection at 0.292" forcing!) - Event 11 Pruitt: ~0.6 ft/in - Event 12 Pruitt: 0.17 ft/in - Event 11 Richland: 0.73 ft/in - Event 12 Richland: 0.35 ft/in
This directly contradicts the dominant antecedent hypothesis. Two leading explanations: 1. Forcing-magnitude dependence: Event 11 zone QPE was larger (Boxley 1.16", Pruitt 1.93", Richland ~2.5") versus Event 12 (Boxley 0.29", Pruitt 0.58", Richland 0.48"). Below some threshold, scattered convective forcing simply doesn't aggregate into a coherent gauge response because (a) interception/depression storage absorbs small bursts even on moist soil and (b) the rainfall is too dispersed in time to produce a coherent wave. Transfer ratios are NOT linear in forcing magnitude — there's a threshold effect. 2. Spatial coherence dependence: Event 11 was a broad watershed-wide pulse with coherent 09–12 CDT cores; Event 12 was spatially shifting (lower-watershed D83 → northwest D84) with no single coherent pulse. Distributed forcing → diffuse hydrograph → smaller measured peak rise even if total runoff volume is similar.
Likely both effects are operating. This is a major refinement of the cross-event findings.
Pruitt two-mode response (fast + slow) is the most interesting empirical finding today. Aligns with local knowledge about karst losses between Ponca and Pruitt — a slow subsurface drainage component that produces a delayed secondary peak after the surface peak has receded. Worth elevating to a named hypothesis.