← 2026-09-09

Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-09-10

Hourly records: 7 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 0, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 7
Settled (horizon passed): 0

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

11:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 17:18 UTC

10:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 16:18 UTC

09:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 15:18 UTC

08:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 14:18 UTC

07:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 13:18 UTC

06:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 12:18 UTC

05:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 11:18 UTC

← 2026-09-09