Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-09-09

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 0, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 24
Settled (horizon passed): 0

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

04:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 10:18 UTC

03:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 09:18 UTC

02:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 08:18 UTC

01:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 07:18 UTC

00:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 06:18 UTC

23:18 UTC — gauge tier low (221 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 05:18 UTC

22:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 04:18 UTC

21:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 03:18 UTC

20:18 UTC — gauge tier low (224 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 02:18 UTC

19:18 UTC — gauge tier low (224 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 01:18 UTC

18:18 UTC — gauge tier low (221 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-11 00:18 UTC

17:18 UTC — gauge tier low (221 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-10 23:18 UTC

16:18 UTC — gauge tier low (221 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-10 22:18 UTC

15:18 UTC — gauge tier low (221 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-10 21:18 UTC

14:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-10 20:18 UTC

13:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-10 19:18 UTC

12:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-10 18:18 UTC

11:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-10 17:18 UTC

10:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-10 16:18 UTC

09:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-10 15:18 UTC

08:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-10 14:18 UTC

07:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-10 13:18 UTC

06:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-10 12:18 UTC

05:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-09-10 11:18 UTC