Hailstone (Upper Buffalo) — Predictions: 2026-07-04

Rise predictions issued: 1
No-rise claims (quiet / too light) issued: 0
Settled (18-h window passed): 1

Issued 2026-07-04 19:21

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak CFS	47 CFS	32 CFS	-14 CFS
Peak time	2026-07-04 19:51	2026-07-04 19:30	—

Moisture: DRY (0.12" 7-day, x0.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Engine: —

Band contributions

Band	Precip	Rise	Arrival	Intensity
1	0.12"	10 CFS	20:15	LIGHT