Classification: correct Confidence: Successful prediction of low-impact event reinforces model reliability for light rainfall scenarios
Model accurately predicted a minimal 0.04 ft rise from light headwater rainfall with excellent peak magnitude accuracy (0.01 ft error).
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 2.33 ft | 2.32 ft | +0.01 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.04 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.24" | 0.07 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
| 5 | 0.26" | 0.05 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
This event demonstrates strong model performance for light rainfall scenarios. The QPE detected modest rainfall totals across all bands (0.43" Band 1, 0.53" Band 2, 0.55" Band 3, 0.43" Band 4, 0.46" Band 5), with the model correctly predicting a minimal response of 0.05 ft rise versus the observed 0.04 ft. The peak magnitude error was only 0.01 ft (0.4%), showing excellent calibration for low-intensity events. The timing error of 5.4 hours is within acceptable bounds for such a small event where precise peak identification becomes challenging due to natural gauge noise.
The gauge precipitation sensor recorded 0" rainfall, which aligns with the relatively modest QPE values and supports the model's conservative response prediction. The flat hydrograph shape and minimal rise confirm this was a low-impact event that the model handled appropriately. The NORMAL moisture conditions (1.415" 7-day average) provided standard response multipliers.
This successful prediction reinforces confidence in the current calibration, particularly for Bands 4 and 5 which dominated the rainfall pattern. No adjustments are warranted as the model performed within acceptable error bounds for such a minor event.
No changes made.
Successful prediction of low-impact event reinforces model reliability for light rainfall scenarios