Classification: partial Confidence: Excellent magnitude prediction accuracy reinforces confidence in response coefficients, though timing precision remains a challenge
Model accurately predicted a 0.25 ft rise from headwater-dominated rainfall but had significant timing error of 7.9 hours.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 2.56 ft | 2.59 ft | -0.03 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.25 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.29" | 0.06 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
The model performed well on magnitude prediction, forecasting a 2.56 ft peak versus actual 2.59 ft (only 1.2% error). The rainfall pattern was primarily headwater-dominated with Band 5 receiving 0.29" and minimal near-gauge precipitation (0.24" at gauge vs QPE showing similar amounts across bands). The broad hydrograph shape confirms the headwater origin with appropriate lag characteristics. However, the model predicted peak arrival at 04:39 on May 7th when the actual peak occurred at 15:45 on May 6th, representing a 7.9-hour timing error. This suggests the lag parameters may need adjustment, though the magnitude accuracy indicates the response coefficients are well-calibrated. The NORMAL moisture conditions and LIGHT intensity classification appear appropriate for this event.
No changes made.
Excellent magnitude prediction accuracy reinforces confidence in response coefficients, though timing precision remains a challenge