Classification: correct Confidence: This successful multi-band prediction significantly increases confidence in the model's calibration, particularly for complex distributed rainfall scenarios
The model accurately predicted a 1.97 ft rise from widespread rainfall across all bands, with only minor errors in peak magnitude (-4.1%) and timing.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 4.02 ft | 4.19 ft | -0.17 ft |
| Total rise | — | 1.97 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
This event represents excellent model performance on a complex multi-band rainfall scenario. The QPE showed significant precipitation across all bands (1.33-1.45 inches total), with the gauge confirming 1.55 inches of ground truth rainfall. The model predicted a peak of 4.02 ft versus the actual 4.19 ft, representing only a 4.1% underprediction - well within acceptable margins. The very broad hydrograph shape (11.2 hour rise duration) correctly reflects the distributed nature of the rainfall across multiple lag times. The timing error of 4.7 hours is reasonable given the complexity of coordinating responses from all five bands. This event demonstrates that recent calibration adjustments have significantly improved the model's ability to handle multi-band scenarios, moving from the severe underpredictions seen in earlier events to highly accurate forecasts. The NORMAL moisture conditions and moderate rainfall intensities represent typical operational scenarios where the model should perform reliably.
No changes made.
This successful multi-band prediction significantly increases confidence in the model's calibration, particularly for complex distributed rainfall scenarios