Classification: false_positive Confidence: Confidence remains low across all bands due to ongoing QPE reliability issues and inconsistent event responses
The model predicted a 0.51 ft rise to 3.12 ft based on 0.46-0.61 inches of rainfall in bands 4-5, but the actual rise was only 0.1 ft to 3.04 ft.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 3.12 ft | 3.04 ft | +0.08 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.1 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.46" | 0.27 ft | HEAVY | NORMAL |
| 5 | 0.61" | 0.24 ft | HEAVY | NORMAL |
This event represents a significant false positive where the model overpredicted the response by approximately 5x. The QPE data shows 0.46-0.61 inches of rainfall primarily in the headwater bands (4-5), which should have produced a meaningful rise based on our calibrated coefficients. However, the actual gauge response was minimal at only 0.1 ft. The sharp hydrograph shape and immediate timing suggest this small rise may have been from very localized precipitation near the gauge that wasn't well-captured by the QPE grid. The discrepancy between gauge-measured precipitation (0.14 inches) and QPE totals (0.46-0.61 inches) indicates potential QPE overestimation in the headwaters.
The timing error of 23.7 hours is also concerning, as the actual peak occurred at the beginning of the day while the model predicted an overnight peak. This suggests the small observed rise was not related to the QPE-detected precipitation event. Given the pattern of recent QPE reliability issues and the magnitude of overprediction, conservative downward adjustments to headwater band coefficients are warranted to prevent future false alarms.
| Band | Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | -15% | Severe overprediction suggests headwater response coefficient too high - reduce to prevent false positives |
| 5 | -15% | Severe overprediction suggests headwater response coefficient too high - reduce to prevent false positives |
Confidence remains low across all bands due to ongoing QPE reliability issues and inconsistent event responses