Empirical Forecasts — Big Piney Creek — 2026-05-18

Forecasts archived: 15
Settled (expiry passed): 15

Big Piney Creek

05:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.9 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 17:30 UTC)

04:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.9 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

03:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.9 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

02:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.9 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

01:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.9 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

00:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.9 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

23:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.9 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

22:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.9 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

21:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.9 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

20:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.9 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

19:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.9 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

18:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.9 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

17:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.8 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

16:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.8 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

15:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 7.2 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)