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Watershed Radar Predictions

Gauges: 16 min ago  |  Radar (QPE): 26 min ago  |  MRMS hour: 31 min ago  |  Forecast (QPF): 2.5 hrs ago

Radar: MRMS product 10:05 UTC Sep 10  |  Forecast: WPC QPF cycle 00z Sep 10  |  Updates every 15 min

DrainageStatusRecent Rain
(Past 7 days)		LocationRadiusLagEstimated Fallen (QPE)Forecast to Fall (QPF)TriggerDetail
1hr3hr6hr12hr24hr6hr12hr24hr
Big Piney Family
Upper Big PineyNo Alert0.01 in35.78N 93.28W4.0 km10-140.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.261"1.65" / eventNo active rain event — Q 1 cfs (BONE-DRY: needs 1.65")
Haw CreekNo Alert0.22 in35.67N 93.28W2.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.251"3.3" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 3.30" trigger (Big Piney BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Hurricane (Newton) CreekNo Alert0.21 in35.79N 93.16W3.0 km6-80.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.270"1.65" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 1.65" trigger (Big Piney BONE-DRY × 1.0)
Buffalo Family
Adkins DrainageNo Alert0.05 in35.81N 93.44W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.320"4.2" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Boen Gulf DrainageNo Alert0.02 in35.88N 93.39W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.330"4.2" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Upper BuffaloNo Alert0.12 in35.82N 93.47W4.0 km6-80.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.349"2.1" / eventNo active rain event — Q 1 cfs (BONE-DRY: needs 2.10")
Beech CreekNo Alert0.12 in35.93N 93.46W2.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.350"3.15" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 3.15" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 1.5)
Cossatot Family
Upper CossatotNo Alert0.50 in34.42N 94.20W5.0 km8-100.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.010"1.2" / eventNo active rain event — Q 4 cfs (BONE-DRY: needs 1.20")
Baker CreekNo Alert0.67 in34.36N 94.16W3.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.010"2.4" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 2.40" trigger (Cossatot BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Kiamichi Family
Pine Creek OKNo Alert0.84 in34.49N 95.63W5.0 km4-60.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.310"2.0" / 12hr0.00" in 12hr — 0% of 2.00" trigger
Buck Creek OKNo Alert0.05 in34.39N 95.66W3.0 km4-60.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.221"2.8" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 2.80" trigger (1.4x rain adj)
Kings Family
Upper Kings RiverNo Alert0.26 in35.87N 93.58W3.0 km4-60.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.468"3.15" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 3.15" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 1.5)
Osage CreekNo Alert0.91 in36.11N 93.31W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.261"4.2" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Little Buffalo Family
West Fork Shop CreekNo Alert0.09 in35.90N 93.24W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.202"4.2" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
EFLBNo Alert0.02 in35.85N 93.26W3.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.242"3.15" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 3.15" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 1.5)
Thomas CreekNo Alert0.02 in35.88N 93.35W2.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.300"4.2" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Mulberry Family
Spirits CreekNo Alert0.01 in35.68N 93.91W3.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.192"2.5" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 2.50" trigger (Mulberry BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Richland Family
Richland MainNo Alert0.52 in35.75N 93.02W4.0 km5-70.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.320"2.1" / eventNo active rain event — Q 0 cfs (BONE-DRY: needs 2.10")
Falling WaterNo Alert0.22 in35.70N 92.96W2.0 km4-60.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.330"2.62" / 12hr0.00" in 12hr — 0% of 2.62" trigger (Richland BONE-DRY × 1.25)
Big Devils ForkNo Alert0.39 in35.83N 92.97W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.310"4.2" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 4.20" trigger (Richland BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Long Devils ForkNo Alert0.50 in35.82N 92.99W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.291"4.2" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 4.20" trigger (Richland BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Bobtail CreekNo Alert0.46 in35.77N 92.90W1.0 kmNOW0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.000"0.300"3.15" / 6hr0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 3.15" trigger (Richland BONE-DRY × 1.5)

How often the calibrated triggers verify

Leave-one-year-out over the creek's radar + gauge record: a WARNING/WATCH "verifies" when the creek reached its floatable floor within 24 h of the storm, at least an hour after the trigger was reached. "Blue-sky" = triggers per year with no rise.

DrainageWARNINGs verifiedTypical leadBlue-sky / yrWATCHes verifiedWATCH leadRecord
Richland Main6 in 103 h6.85 in 104 h2015–2026
Upper Big Piney7 in 109 h5.76 in 1010 h2014–2026
Upper Buffalo6 in 103 h6.24 in 103 h2015–2026
Upper Cossatot7 in 105 h7.26 in 105 h2015–2026
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DISCLAIMER: This site provides creek condition estimates for informational purposes only. Gauge data, radar estimates, and forecasts may be delayed, inaccurate, or unavailable. Always exercise independent judgment. Whitewater kayaking is inherently dangerous — water conditions can change rapidly. This site and its maintainers assume no responsibility for decisions made based on information displayed here.

Page Details: This page uses Data collected from NOAA's Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Data (MRMS QPE) and the Weather Prediction Center's Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (WPC QPF) system. It attempts to predict when certain Creeks in the State of Arkansas will be boatable. The WPC QPF provides an amount of precipitation that is "Forecast to Fall" in a 5km x 5km grid, in the next 6, 12, and 24 hours, centered on the Latitude and Longitude of the defined watersheds of Arkansas Creeks. Information about the WPC QPF can be found here. The MRMS QPE gives an "Estimated Fallen" amount of precipitation in a geographic area, defined by a latitude and longitude, and a circle around that point. The resolution of the MRMS QPE system is a square approximately 1km by 1km. Learn more about the MRMS System here. Gauge Data updates every 15 minutes, QPE Data updates every hour, and QPF data updates every 3 hours.

Caveats: It goes without saying, but this is a different approach to judging when a creek is in than the traditional method of looking at the nearest USGS gauge (That data is still available via the main Gauges page) but it attempts to address the shortfall in identifying runnable creeks, that don't have a gauge on them (Or the gauge is at the bottom of the run) and have a tendency to drop out before folks could get on. It is obviously quite experimental, and triggers, thresholds and location data likely will need to be updated and refined. Contact Dave if you've got thoughts on how this page can be improved with additional data, or refinement of the data that is here.

Smarter triggers (July 2026, refit September 2026): Most drainages now use a real creek gauge as a ground-dryness indicator. How much rain it takes to raise a creek depends heavily on how wet the ground already is — a dead-low creek in July can shrug off rain that would flood it in February. Upper Buffalo, Richland Main, Upper Cossatot and Upper Big Piney read their own gauge (the Mulberry gauge serves Spirits): the threshold in the Trigger column adjusts automatically to the creek's flow before the storm ("event" = rain accumulated over the current storm, rather than a fixed time window), refit on 11–12 years of radar and gauge history with a lead-time requirement (a catch only counts an hour or more before the creek came up), leave-one-year-out; the Cossatot's thresholds split by leaf season. How often those triggers actually verify is in the table above — roughly six or seven WARNINGs in ten, with a false alarm every month or two on each creek; hover a Trigger cell for the creek's numbers. Their neighboring drainages (the Buffalo, Little Buffalo, Kings, Richland, Cossatot and Big Piney families) borrow the nearest calibrated gauge as a regional dryness read, scaled by a local-knowledge multiplier — the Detail column shows the reference gauge, its dryness bucket, and the multiplier (e.g. "Boxley DRY × 2.0"). These are heuristic, not calibrated — treat them as a watch, not a forecast. FLOOD is the gauge's word, shown only when a calibrated creek's own reading is at or above its flood level; the rain trigger tops out at WARNING. What a status holds (since 8 Sep 2026): a rain WATCH/WARNING stays on the page for the drainage's lag plus two hours so a storm is still visible when its water reaches the gauge, but on a calibrated creek the gauge comes first — once the creek is running (or already came up and is receding) the rain word clears and the creek's own reading is the status; FLOOD follows the gauge with a one-hour confirmation after it drops. Only the Kiamichi creeks still use fixed thresholds adjusted by recent-rain multipliers.

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