Boxley (07055646) — height: - (a) First: 3.40 ft @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 5.50 ft @ 13:45 - (c) Last: 4.03 ft @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 3.13 ft @ 08:15 (also 08:30, 08:45) - (e) Low→peak rise: 3.13 → 5.50 = +2.37 ft over ~5.5 hr (08:15 → 13:45)
Ponca (07055660) — discharge: - (a) First: 498 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 1920 cfs @ 15:30 (also 15:45) - (c) Last: 1040 cfs @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 410 cfs @ 08:00 (also 08:15, 08:30) - (e) Low→peak rise: 410 → 1920 = +1510 cfs over ~7.5 hr (08:00 → 15:30)
Pruitt (07055680) — height + discharge: - (a) First (height): 4.82 ft @ 00:00; discharge 431 cfs - (b) Max height: 7.98 ft @ 21:45; Max discharge: 2130 cfs @ 21:45 - (c) Last: 7.66 ft / 1880 cfs @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 4.76 ft @ 03:00 and 04:00; 409 cfs @ 03:00 and 04:00 - (e) Low→peak rise: 4.76 → 7.98 = +3.22 ft over ~17.75 hr; 409 → 2130 cfs = +1721 cfs
St. Joe (07056000) — height + discharge: - (a) First: 4.47 ft / 557 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 5.18 ft @ 22:45; 926 cfs @ 22:45 - (c) Last: 5.18 ft / 926 cfs @ 22:45 (still rising at EOD) - (d) Intraday low: 4.46 ft @ 00:30, 02:45; 552 cfs @ 00:30, 02:45 - (e) Low→peak rise: 4.46 → 5.18 = +0.72 ft over ~20 hr; 552 → 926 cfs = +374 cfs
Harriet (07056700) — height + discharge: - (a) First: 4.48 ft / 712 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 4.79 ft @ 23:45; 949 cfs @ 23:45 - (c) Last: 4.79 ft / 949 cfs @ 23:45 (still rising at EOD) - (d) Intraday low: 4.47 ft @ 04:00, 05:15, 05:30, 06:15–09:30; 705 cfs @ 04:00 etc. - (e) Low→peak rise: 4.47 → 4.79 = +0.32 ft over ~14 hr; 705 → 949 cfs = +244 cfs
Richland Creek (07055875) — height: - (a) First: 1.44 ft @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 1.75 ft @ 19:15, 19:30 - (c) Last: 1.72 ft @ 23:00 - (d) Intraday low: 1.41 ft @ 08:00–09:15 - (e) Low→peak rise: 1.41 → 1.75 = +0.34 ft over ~10 hr
Bear Creek (07056515) — height + discharge: - (a) First: 2.38 ft / 39 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max height: 2.41 ft (multiple times from 11:15 on); Max discharge: 42 cfs @ multiple times from 12:15 - (c) Last: 2.41 ft / 42 cfs @ 23:15 - (d) Intraday low: 2.36 ft @ 07:15, 07:45–09:15; 37.1 cfs same times - (e) Low→peak rise: 2.36 → 2.41 = +0.05 ft over ~4 hr; 37.1 → 42 cfs = +4.9 cfs
EVENT 19 PULSE 3 — Major mid-day convective event, upper basin focus.
Today's rainfall hit the upper basin hard, with the heaviest totals concentrated in the Pruitt and Ponca zones:
Spatial pattern: a narrow convective band crossed the upper-to-middle basin during a tight ~14:00–16:00 CDT window. Peak 1-hr times cluster at 14:02–15:02 CDT across Boxley/Ponca/Pruitt/Little Buffalo HUCs, indicating a coherent west-to-east convective line. Richland and lower-basin HUCs got the trailing/weaker portion.
Antecedent conditions were very wet: 7-day QPE values today range from 1.5–2.6" across the upper basin (Boxley HUC 201: 2.59", Cove Cr 2.41", Ponca HUCs 1.7–2.5"), reflecting the cumulative effect of Day 98–99 Event 19 pulses 1 & 2 plus Day 96 pulse.
Boxley (mainstem, upper): Significant flash rise. From the overnight recession low of 3.13 ft @ 08:15, height rose to 5.50 ft @ 13:45 — a 2.37-ft rise in ~5.5 hr, with the steepest hourly rise of +1.85 ft @ 13:15. This exceeds local-knowledge thresholds: 5.50 ft is well above the Hailstone "high" threshold (5.9 is high; 4.4 is optimal). Boxley achieved Hailstone Optimal+ for ~2–3 hours mid-afternoon. Rapid recession followed: back to 4.03 ft by 23:30.
Ponca (discharge): Major response. Climbed from 410 cfs early-morning low to 1920 cfs peak @ 15:30 — a +1510 cfs rise in 7.5 hr. This crossed the 1600 cfs flood threshold briefly (1810→1920 cfs from 15:00–15:45). Receding through evening to 1040 cfs by 23:30. Attribution: combined Boxley pulse + direct rainfall in Beech/Smith/Whiteley HUCs (1.0+" in each).
Pruitt: Two-phase response. (1) Morning rise (Boxley/Ponca propagation overlapping with antecedent recession from yesterday): 4.76 → ~5.34 ft by 10:30. (2) Late-evening surge: from ~6.0 ft @ 19:15, jumped to 7.98 ft @ 21:45 with discharge hitting 2130 cfs — crossing the Pruitt flood threshold of 2000 cfs by 21:00 and remaining above through 22:45. Largest hourly rise +1.39 ft @ 20:45. This is a flood-scale response at Pruitt. Receding fast: 7.66 ft / 1880 cfs at EOD.
St. Joe: Steady, sustained rise — no flash. 4.46 → 5.18 ft (+0.72 ft), 552 → 926 cfs (+374 cfs), still climbing at EOD. Largest hourly rise +0.11 ft @ 12:45. Mid-Optimal CFS range.
Harriet: Slow rise from 4.47 ft late morning to 4.79 ft / 949 cfs @ 23:45 (still rising). +0.32 ft / +244 cfs total. Largest hourly rise +0.05 ft @ 21:45.
Richland Creek (tributary): Modest rise from 1.41 ft early morning to 1.75 ft @ 19:15 (+0.34 ft). Well below all recreational thresholds. Lag from peak QPE (15:02) to Richland peak (~19:15) is ~4 hr.
Bear Creek (tributary): Essentially flat. 2.36 → 2.41 ft (+0.05 ft), 37.1 → 42 cfs. Local rain (0.46") absorbed by dry-side antecedent (1.06" 7-day). Confirms signal separator: any Harriet rise today is mainstem propagation, not Bear Cr local forcing.
Pair A — Boxley zone (HUC 0201) → Boxley gauge: - Peak 1-hr QPE: 0.699" @ ~10:02 CDT (14:02 UTC). - Peak gauge: 5.50 ft @ 13:45 CDT. - Lag: ~3.7 hr (peak-to-peak). - Transfer ratio: 2.37 ft / 1.04" zone-avg = 2.28 ft/inch. - Antecedent: very wet (7-day = 2.59", a study-period high). - Comparison to prior: Earlier wet-antecedent Boxley events have shown lag times of 2–4 hr at high-end forcing — today's 3.7 hr is consistent. The transfer ratio of 2.28 ft/inch is on the HIGH end of Boxley's range (typical wet ratios 1.5–2.5 ft/in). The very wet antecedent (>2.5") and high 1-hr intensity together appear to push transfer toward the upper bound, consistent with hypothesis. No deviation flag. Pool-and-drop pre-fill is fully satisfied at this antecedent.
Pair B — Pruitt zone (HUC 0204 Cove Cr + 0207 Hoskin) → Pruitt gauge: - Peak 1-hr QPE: Cove 0.537" @ 14:02 CDT (09:02 local CDT? — note: peak_1hr_time is UTC; 14:02Z = 09:02 CDT). Zone peak 1-hr was at 14:02Z = 09:02 CDT. Correction: timestamps in huc12_qpe_summary peak_1hr_time appear to be in UTC (Z markers in earlier days are absent here; per data-conventions today the listed times read as UTC). Treating 14:02 as 14:02 UTC = 09:02 CDT for Cove Cr peak intensity. - Wait — re-examining: today's QPE peak times like "2026-06-08T15:02:00Z" with Z suffix are UTC. 15:02 UTC = 10:02 CDT. - Cove Cr peak 1-hr 0.537" @ 14:02Z = 09:02 CDT. - Pruitt height peak: 7.98 ft @ 21:45 CDT. - Lag: ~12.7 hr peak-to-peak — but this is misleading because the Pruitt response is bimodal: the main forcing was actually the major QPE pulse 14:00–16:00 CDT (peaks at 15:02 UTC = 10:02 CDT… still confusing).
Let me re-examine the Pruitt rise: discharge went 600 → 2130 cfs from 09:00 → 21:45 CDT, with the steepest rise 19:00 → 21:45 CDT. This delayed surge does not match the morning QPE peak — it matches runoff from Boxley/Ponca-zone heavy rain propagating downstream PLUS Pruitt-zone direct rainfall accumulation.
Reframing: the Pruitt flood-scale peak at 21:45 is a combined Boxley/Ponca/Pruitt cumulative response, not a clean pair. Cleaner attribution: - Boxley peak 13:45 → Pruitt peak 21:45 = 8.0 hr (mainstem propagation lag, see §4). - Transfer ratio Pruitt-only contribution is hard to isolate today; raw value 3.22 ft rise / 1.25" zone-avg = 2.58 ft/inch, but this overstates because much of the rise is propagated from upstream. No clean prior comparison available — flag for low confidence.
Pair C — St. Joe zone (mixed) → St. Joe gauge: - Zone-avg 24-hr QPE: 0.769", concentrated in Flatrock (1.23"), Little Buffalo (0.84–1.12"), Big Cr (0.5–0.85"). - Peak 1-hr 0.525" @ 15:02Z = 10:02 CDT (Little Buffalo HUC 0102). - St. Joe still rising at EOD (5.18 ft at 22:45, +0.72 ft so far). - Lag estimate: in progress — at least 12 hr from peak QPE to current. Peak likely tomorrow morning. Provisional transfer-so-far: 0.72 ft / 0.77" = 0.94 ft/inch (lower than expected because peak not yet reached). - Richland gauge: rose only 0.34 ft → confirms Richland sub-basin (Richland HUC 306/307 only got 0.44/0.37") was NOT a major contributor. Today's St. Joe rise is being driven primarily by Little Buffalo + Big Creek + Flatrock, validating signal-separation logic.
Pair D — Boxley zone → Ponca gauge: - Peak 1-hr 0.699" @ Boxley HUC (14:02Z = 09:02 CDT? or 15:02 = 10:02 CDT — peak_1hr_time given as 2026-06-08T15:02:00Z = 10:02 CDT). - Ponca peak: 1920 cfs @ 15:30 CDT. - Lag: ~5.5 hr peak-to-peak. - Transfer: 1510 cfs / 1.04" = 1452 cfs/inch (Ponca-zone QPE was independent ~1.04", but Boxley flush adds).
Clean mainstem cascade observed today:
| Gauge | Peak time (CDT) | Peak value | Δ from upstream |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 13:45 | 5.50 ft | — |
| Ponca | 15:30 | 1920 cfs | +1h 45m |
| Pruitt | 21:45 | 7.98 ft / 2130 cfs | +6h 15m |
| St. Joe | still rising (22:45) | 5.18 ft / 926 cfs | TBD (tomorrow) |
| Harriet | still rising (23:45) | 4.79 ft / 949 cfs | TBD |
Event 19 continues — now in its third pulse phase, Day 100 (Day 3 of forcing).
Cumulative event totals across the upper basin (Day 98–100): - Boxley zone 7-day antecedent on Day 100 = 2.59" (was 1.38" on Day 99) → ~1.2" delivered today alone. - Pruitt zone 7-day = 1.89–2.41" depending on HUC. - Boxley gauge has now seen three rise pulses: 2.97 ft (Day 99 morning), preliminary smaller pulse, and today's 5.50 ft Hailstone-runnable peak. This is the largest Boxley height of the study. - Pruitt has now achieved its first flood-threshold-exceeding peak of the study (2130 cfs > 2000 cfs flood). This rivals Event 15 Pruitt response and may exceed it on per-gauge basis. - The pool-and-drop reservoir above Boxley is fully filled; today's runoff is in flashy direct-runoff mode.
Pruitt flood-threshold crossing is the most surprising event. Prior to today, Event 15 (Day 88–89) was the only event producing such peaks. Today's antecedent was wet but the QPE total (1.25") was not extreme — the steepness of the surge from 19:00–21:45 (4 ft in <3 hr) suggests runoff bunching from upstream cascade arriving concurrent with Pruitt-zone direct runoff. This is a "constructive interference" event worth flagging.
Boxley reached 5.50 ft — exceeding the local-knowledge "Hailstone high" of 5.9 ft? No — 5.50 < 5.9, so it's Optimal+ but not high-yet by Hailstone definition. Still, this is the highest Boxley reading of the 100-day study per my tracking.
Richland barely responded despite 0.40" zone QPE — Richland zone has stayed relatively dry through Event 19, in stark contrast to the heavy upper-basin focus. Reinforces the spatial-shift hypothesis: this event's storm track is north/upper, missing Richland.
Bear Creek's revised rating curve appears stable — 2.36 ft / 37.1 cfs baseline today is consistent with the Day 97 post-revision baseline. No anomaly.
Ponca briefly tagged flood (1920 cfs > 1600 cfs threshold for ~45 min) — second Ponca flood-threshold crossing of study (first was Event 15). Noted.