Boxley (07055646) — height: - (a) First: 2.54 ft @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 3.48 ft @ 22:15 - (c) Last: 3.43 ft @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 2.43 ft @ 06:30 - (e) Low→peak rise: 2.43 → 3.48 ft = +1.05 ft over ~15.75 hr (06:30 → 22:15). Note: bimodal — first peak 2.97 ft @ 09:15 (rise +0.54 ft in ~2.75 hr from morning low), then partial recession to ~2.83 ft @ 16:45, then sharper second pulse to 3.48 ft @ 22:15 (+0.65 ft in ~5.5 hr).
Ponca (07055660) — discharge: - (a) First: 159 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 464 cfs @ 23:30 - (c) Last: 464 cfs @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 159 cfs @ 00:00 (no lower reading) - (e) Low→peak rise: 159 → 464 cfs = +305 cfs over ~23.5 hr. Bimodal: first peak 375 cfs @ 06:45 (+216 cfs in ~6.75 hr), recession to ~280 cfs @ 11:15, second rise underway at EOD (still climbing).
Pruitt (07055680) — height + discharge: - (a) First: 3.84 ft / 136 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 4.83 ft @ 23:00 / 434 cfs @ 23:00 - (c) Last: 4.81 ft / 427 cfs @ 23:30 - (d) Intraday low: 3.82 ft @ 00:45 / 131 cfs @ 00:45 - (e) Low→peak rise: 3.82 → 4.83 ft = +1.01 ft over ~22.25 hr; 131 → 434 cfs = +303 cfs. Bimodal pattern visible: first crest 4.72 ft / 395 cfs @ 17:30–18:15, dip to 4.66 ft / 374 cfs @ 19:30, second crest 4.83 ft / 434 cfs @ 23:00, still rising at EOD.
St. Joe (07056000) — height + discharge: - (a) First: 4.48 ft / 561 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 4.49 ft @ multiple / 566 cfs @ multiple - (c) Last: 4.45 ft / 548 cfs @ 22:45 - (d) Intraday low: 4.43 ft @ 19:15 / 539 cfs @ 19:15 - (e) Low→peak rise: 4.43 → 4.47 ft = +0.04 ft over ~2 hr (recovery in late evening). Essentially flat/noise-level. Pure recession-dominant day with no real signal.
Harriet (07056700) — height + discharge: - (a) First: 4.56 ft / 771 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 4.56 ft @ 00:00–00:15 / 771 cfs @ 00:00–00:15 - (c) Last: 4.49 ft / 719 cfs @ 22:45 - (d) Intraday low: 4.48 ft @ 22:15–22:30 / 712 cfs @ 22:15 - (e) No meaningful low→peak rise — pure recession from prior-day max.
Richland Creek (07055875) — height: - (a) First: 1.53 ft @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 1.53 ft @ 00:00 (also 1.50 ft @ 14:00–14:30 sub-peak) - (c) Last: 1.44 ft @ 23:00 - (d) Intraday low: 1.44 ft @ 21:30 onward - (e) Sub-cycle low→peak: bottomed 1.45 ft @ 13:00–13:30, rose to 1.50 ft @ 14:00–14:30 = +0.05 ft in ~1 hr (small mid-day pulse), then recession.
Bear Creek (07056515) — height + discharge: - (a) First: 2.45 ft / 46.4 cfs @ 00:00 - (b) Max: 2.45 ft / 46.4 cfs @ 00:00 (multiple early readings) - (c) Last: 2.39 ft / 40.0 cfs @ 23:15 - (d) Intraday low: 2.39 ft @ 21:15 onward / 40.0 cfs @ 21:15 - (e) Pure recession day; brief blip 2.40 → 2.41 ft @ 19:30–19:45 (+0.01 ft, noise).
Today was a two-pulse upper-basin / Little Buffalo event with sharply different spatial focus from yesterday.
Pulse 1 (early morning, ~midnight–06Z = 19:00 D-1 to 01:00 today CDT, peak 00:02 CDT): Concentrated on the upper-most headwaters: - HUC 0201 (Terrapin Br-Buffalo / Boxley zone): 1.250" / 24-hr, peak 1-hr 0.532" @ 00:02 CDT, max-3hr 0.683". - HUC 0202 (Beech Cr / Ponca): 1.019", peak 0.331" @ 00:02 CDT. - HUC 0203 (Smith Cr / Ponca): 0.668".
Pulse 2 (late afternoon/evening, ~18Z–21Z = 13:00–16:00 CDT): Shifted east/south to Little Buffalo and Richland headwaters: - HUC 0102 (Headwaters Little Buffalo / St. Joe zone): 0.522", peak 0.268" @ 16:02 CDT - HUC 0307 (Falling Water Cr / Richland zone): 0.465", peak 0.217" @ 14:02 CDT - HUC 0302 (Headwaters Big Cr): 0.470" - Light scattered showers across central/lower zones (0.1–0.3").
Zone totals: Boxley 1.250", Ponca 0.704", Richland 0.403", St. Joe 0.283", Pruitt 0.267", Harriet 0.182", Bear Cr 0.127", ungauged 0.131".
Spatial summary: Steep west-to-east gradient. Boxley headwaters got the heaviest pulse (single-zone max); Pruitt's own contributing area (Cove Cr + Hoskin Cr, HUCs 0204/0207) got surprisingly little (0.354" / 0.181").
Boxley (1.250" zone QPE → +1.05 ft total range, +0.54 ft and +0.65 ft bimodal): - Pulse 1 (rain peak 00:02 CDT) → Boxley first crest 2.97 ft @ 09:15 (rise from 2.43 ft @ 06:30, +0.54 ft in 2.75 hr). - Pulse 2 (rain peak ~14–16 CDT, plus 0.275" extra on HUC 0101 with 21:02Z = 16:02 CDT peak) → Boxley second crest 3.48 ft @ 22:15 (+0.65 ft from 16:45). - Threshold context: Boxley 3.48 ft is now well above the Hailstone "low but floatable" threshold (3.7 ft per local knowledge)… actually just below. Boxley is at 3.43–3.48 ft, which is on the cusp of Hailstone floatable and above the 3.2 ft "low but floatable" threshold for the Boxley→Ponca section. First time this study reaching Hailstone-runnable territory? Close — needs ~0.25 ft more rise to hit Hailstone 3.7 ft.
Ponca (0.704" zone QPE → +305 cfs): - Pulse 1 → first crest 375 cfs @ 06:45 (rise from 159 cfs @ 00:00, +216 cfs in 6.75 hr). Note Ponca peak preceded Boxley's first peak by ~2.5 hr — this is because pulse 1 rained directly on Ponca-zone HUCs (0202 = 1.019", 0203 = 0.668") which respond faster than the routed Boxley signal. - Recession to ~280 cfs @ 11:15. - Pulse 2 contribution + arriving Boxley pulse 1 → second rise to 464 cfs @ 23:30, still climbing.
Pruitt (0.267" local QPE → +1.01 ft / +303 cfs total): - Slow steady rise through morning (3.84 → 3.92 ft by 11:00) consistent with arriving Ponca/Boxley pulse 1 (routed downstream). - Sharper rise from 3.95 ft @ 11:15 → 4.72 ft @ 17:30–18:15 (+0.77 ft in 6 hr). This is largely the arrival of Ponca's morning peak (375 cfs @ 06:45) routed downstream — Ponca→Pruitt at this flow ~10–11 hr seems reasonable. - Dip to 4.66 ft @ 19:30, then second rise to 4.83 ft @ 23:00, still climbing, presumably as Ponca's evening rise routes through.
St. Joe & Harriet: Pure recession-dominant. St. Joe held 4.43–4.49 ft (noise band ±0.03 ft). Harriet recessed 4.56 → 4.48 ft. The upper-basin rises have not yet arrived (expected lag from Pruitt is 5–7 hr at moderate flow per Event 8; from Boxley/Ponca much longer). Harriet still drifting down from Event 17 long-tail recession.
Richland: Brief sub-cycle: 0.403" zone QPE produced a tiny +0.05 ft pulse @ 14:00–14:30 from HUC 0307's 14:02 CDT rain pulse — barely detectable. Otherwise recessing.
Bear Creek: Pure recession. 0.127" zone QPE insufficient to register.
Pair A — Pulse 1 → Boxley first crest: - Peak 1-hr QPE: 0.532" @ 00:02 CDT (HUC 0201). - Peak gauge response: 2.97 ft @ 09:15 CDT. - Lag = ~9 hr 13 min. - Antecedent: 7-day Boxley zone = 1.195" (moist). - Rise from low: 0.54 ft over 2.75 hr from intraday low. From start-of-day baseline 2.54 ft, rise = +0.43 ft. - Transfer ratio (event-total approach): Using full bimodal event total = 1.05 ft / 1.250" = 0.84 ft/in (still in progress; second pulse complicates). - For pulse 1 alone: ~0.54 ft / ~0.683" (max-3hr) = 0.79 ft/in.
Comparison to prior Boxley findings: Event 11 (Day 80–82, dry antecedent) found pool-and-drop minimal response. Event 19 today is moist antecedent (1.20" 7-day) — and this matches the hypothesis-doc note that Event 11's dry-condition damping does not generalize. Today's response is much more vigorous than Event 11's, supporting the moist→active-response refinement. Boxley moist-antecedent transfer of 0.79–0.84 ft/in is a new, well-resolved data point — earlier estimates were sparse because Boxley rarely got isolated forcing.
Pair B — Pulse 1 → Ponca first peak: - Peak 1-hr QPE (Ponca zone HUC 0202): 0.331" @ 00:02 CDT. - Peak Ponca response: 375 cfs @ 06:45 CDT. - Lag = ~6 hr 43 min. - Antecedent: 7-day Ponca zone ~1.16" (moist). - Rise: 159 → 375 = +216 cfs. - Transfer (single-pulse partial): 216 cfs / 0.331" ≈ 653 cfs/in for the morning pulse — but the zone got 0.704" total over the day so this underestimates the eventual full-event ratio.
Comparison to prior Ponca findings: Event 8 wet-antecedent ratios were on the order of high-flow regime, much larger. Today's moderate response (peak 375 cfs, well below "low but floatable" 200 cfs threshold? — actually well above it; below "optimal" 1600). Ponca is now floatable but not optimal. Lag of 6.75 hr is consistent with moist-antecedent Ponca behavior; will refine when full event resolves tomorrow.
Pair C — Pulse 2 (Little Buffalo HUC 0102 = 0.522") → St. Joe response: - Expected St. Joe contribution: rain ~14–16 CDT, expected lag for moist-but-recovering basin probably 8–14 hr to St. Joe given small contributing fraction. Not yet visible at St. Joe by 22:45. Will manifest tomorrow. - Noted for follow-up.
Pair D — Pulse 2 (Richland HUC 0307 = 0.465") → Richland gauge: - Peak 1-hr QPE: 0.217" @ 14:02 CDT. - Peak gauge response: 1.50 ft @ 14:00–14:30 CDT. - Lag ≈ 0 hr — but this is misleading. The gauge moved only +0.05 ft. Most of the 0.465" zone QPE arrived later (peak_1hr_time 19:02 CDT per the summary, contradiction with HUC 0307 14:02 CDT — let me re-read). Re-checking: HUC 0307 peak_1hr 0.217" @ 19:02Z, which is 14:02 CDT. The mid-afternoon gauge bump (1.50 ft @ 14:00–14:30) precedes any meaningful response — essentially a noise-level wiggle. Real Richland response to 0.403" zone-average QPE is suppressed: <0.05 ft visible. - This is a notable sub-detection-threshold observation: 0.403" zone QPE with 7-day antecedent 1.13" did not produce a recreational-grade rise.
Mainstem chain timing (Pulse 1 of Event 19): - Boxley first peak: 09:15 CDT (~9 hr after rain peak 00:02) - Ponca first peak: 06:45 CDT (~6.75 hr after rain peak) - Pruitt first arrival/early peak: ~17:30 CDT (4.72 ft) - St. Joe: no response yet - Harriet: no response yet
Note on apparent inversion: Ponca peaked before Boxley because pulse 1 rained directly on Ponca-zone HUCs (0202, 0203), which have shorter routing paths than the headwater HUC 0201 → Boxley signal. These are two different rain inputs responding to the same atmospheric pulse, not sequential routing of one input.
True Boxley → Ponca routing (Boxley pulse 1 reaching Ponca): Boxley peak 09:15, Ponca's second rise begins ~11:30 (after recession from its own direct response). Onset of second rise → Boxley peak = ~2 hr 15 min. This is a reasonable routing time at moderate flow.
Boxley/Ponca pulse 1 → Pruitt: Ponca peak 06:45 → Pruitt arrival rise begins ~10:00, reaches 4.72 ft @ ~17:30. Ponca → Pruitt = ~10.75 hr at moderate flow.
This is considerably longer than Event 8's wet-antecedent Pruitt→St. Joe routing of 5–7 hr at high flow. Today's velocity is slower because flows are still well below optimal. Consistent with Manning's-style flow-velocity-stage relationship.
Event 19 is in progress and is multi-day: - Day 98 (yesterday): forcing began ~21:00 with the late-evening pulse on Boxley HUC 0201 (peak 0.532" @ 00:02 CDT today, but front edge yesterday). Pre-existing minor rises at Boxley were noted. - Day 99 (today): two pulses delivered, gauges responding actively, Pruitt and Ponca still rising at EOD. - Expected Day 100 progression: Pruitt likely to peak overnight or early morning (within next 4–8 hr based on current rate). St. Joe should begin to register tomorrow morning as Pruitt outflow arrives (5–7 hr at moderate flow per Event 8 — but slower today, so 7–10 hr likely). Harriet likely won't register a clean Event 19 signal until late tomorrow or Day 101.
Event total magnitudes so far: - Boxley: +1.05 ft (still climbing potential) - Ponca: +305 cfs (still climbing) - Pruitt: +1.01 ft, +303 cfs (still climbing) - This is a Tier 2 recreational event — Pruitt approaching 5 ft is well above its "Optimal" threshold of 200 cfs (currently 427 cfs and rising); could push into optimal-prime range tomorrow.
Pruitt's quiescence during pulse 1 morning rain was striking — despite 0.331" on Ponca-zone HUCs upstream, Pruitt height barely moved (3.79–3.88 ft) all morning until ~11:00. This is the classic "Pruitt's own zone has to wet before transmission" — and Pruitt zone got only 0.267" today. Most of Pruitt's rise is routed upstream water from Ponca/Boxley, not local response. This is consistent with what I'd expect: Pruitt's small contributing area (123 km², 3.5% of watershed) makes it dominantly a routing gauge for upstream signal in this kind of upper-basin-focused event.
Ponca peak preceding Boxley peak (06:45 vs 09:15) is interesting. Reading more carefully: Ponca's 06:00–06:45 jump from 199 → 375 cfs is a sharp ~3-fold increase in 45 minutes — this is direct response to in-zone rain ending just as the jump happens. It's not anomalous, it's a healthy reminder that signal separation matters even on the mainstem: gauges respond first to their own zone, then to routed upstream input.
Spatial gradient was extreme: Boxley 1.250" vs Pruitt 0.267" vs Harriet 0.182". A 7× west-to-east gradient over ~60 km. This is the kind of event the study design was built to characterize.
No anomalies contradicting prior hypotheses. Event 11's "dry-antecedent Boxley pool-and-drop damping" remains intact — today is moist-antecedent and behaves quite differently, supporting (not contradicting) the antecedent-dependence finding.
Hailstone runnable threshold within reach. Boxley 3.48 ft is 0.22 ft short of Hailstone "low but floatable" (3.7 ft). If pulse 2 second crest continues developing overnight (still rising at EOD with 22:15 max), Boxley could cross the 3.7 ft Hailstone threshold tonight or early tomorrow — first time this study! Worth watching closely.