Daily Analysis

PRE-ANALYSIS PROCEDURE (per-gauge facts for 2026-05-21):

• Boxley (height): (a) first 2.26 ft @ 00:00; (b) max 2.26 ft @ 00:00–00:15; (c) last 2.14 ft @ 23:30; (d) intraday-low 2.14 ft @ 23:00+; (e) no low→peak rise — pure monotonic recession.
• Ponca (discharge): (a) first 143 cfs @ 00:00; (b) max 143 cfs @ 00:00–00:15; (c) last 116 cfs @ 23:30; (d) intraday-low 116 cfs @ 22:15+; (e) no low→peak rise — pure recession.
• Pruitt (height/discharge): (a) first 4.34 ft / 272 cfs @ 00:00; (b) height max 4.35 ft @ 00:15–00:30, discharge max 275 cfs @ 00:15; (c) last 4.02 ft / 183 cfs @ 23:30; (d) intraday-low 4.02 ft / 183 cfs @ 22:45+; (e) trivial early-day 0.01 ft pulse (4.34 → 4.35) at top — essentially pure recession from D81 prior-day peak.
• St. Joe (height/discharge): (a) first 5.21 ft / 943 cfs @ 00:00; (b) max 5.22 ft / 949 cfs @ 00:15–03:00 (multiple readings — plateau peak); (c) last 4.78 ft / 706 cfs @ 22:45; (d) intraday-low 4.78 ft / 706 cfs @ 22:15+; (e) low→peak rise: 5.21 → 5.22 ft (+0.01 ft) over ~15 min at start — Event 11 peak confirmed in the first 3 hours of today, then recession. Event 11 St. Joe FINAL peak: 5.22 ft / 949 cfs @ D82 01:00–03:00 (approx).
• Harriet (height/discharge): (a) first 4.75 ft / 917 cfs @ 00:00; (b) max 5.00 ft / 1130 cfs @ 13:15–13:30; (c) last 4.85 ft / 998 cfs @ 22:45; (d) intraday-low 4.75 ft / 917 cfs @ 00:00; (e) low→peak rise: 4.75 → 5.00 ft (+0.25 ft / +213 cfs) over ~13.25 hr from 00:00 to 13:15. This is the Event 11 Harriet FINAL peak.
• Richland Creek (height): (a) first 1.84 ft @ 00:00; (b) max 1.84 ft @ 00:00–00:45; (c) last 1.69 ft @ 23:00; (d) intraday-low 1.69 ft @ 22:00+; (e) minor sub-cycle 1.77→1.79 ft @ 13:00 (+0.02 ft), but pure recession overall.
• Bear Creek (height/discharge): (a) first 2.14 ft / 16.0 cfs @ 00:00; (b) max 2.16 ft / 17.0 cfs @ 08:15+ (sustained); (c) last 2.16 ft / 17.0 cfs @ 23:15; (d) intraday-low 2.14 ft / 16.0 cfs @ 00:00–02:45; (e) low→peak rise: 2.14 → 2.16 ft (+0.02 ft / +1 cfs) over ~8 hr. Bear Cr still rising at EOD, on Day 3 of the slowest tributary response in the study.

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1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

Zero QPE basin-wide. All 37 HUC12s record 0.000" 24-hr total. Second consecutive dry day. The forcing for today's activity is entirely Event 11 (Day 80) precipitation — Pruitt zone 1.93", St. Joe 1.60", Harriet 1.76", ungauged 2.21".

2. GAUGE RESPONSES

Today is a recession + propagation day. Five gauges in pure recession, two completed Event 11 peaks within the day:

• Boxley: 2.26 → 2.14 ft (-0.12 ft), pure recession. Rate ≈ 0.005 ft/hr — slower than prior 0.013 ft/hr, consistent with deepening recession curve.
• Ponca: 143 → 116 cfs (-27 cfs in 23.5 hr ≈ -1.15 cfs/hr). Slower than prior post-peak rate (~3.7 cfs/hr Day 81) — confirms log-decay tail flattening.
• Pruitt: 4.35 → 4.02 ft / 275 → 183 cfs. Steady recession at ~0.014 ft/hr.
• St. Joe: EVENT 11 PEAK FINALIZED — 5.22 ft / 949 cfs at D82 01:00–03:00, then recession to 4.78 ft / 706 cfs by 22:45. Recession rate ~0.022 ft/hr.
• Harriet: EVENT 11 PEAK FINALIZED — 5.00 ft / 1130 cfs at D82 13:15–13:30. Rose +0.25 ft from midnight before turning over. Recession from peak: 5.00 → 4.85 ft in ~9.5 hr ≈ 0.016 ft/hr.
• Richland: 1.84 → 1.69 ft, recession at ~0.0065 ft/hr.
• Bear Creek: Still rising slowly. 2.14 → 2.16 ft. Final peak not yet reached.

3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS (Event 11 FINAL closure)

With today's peaks closing out Event 11 at St. Joe and Harriet, full Event 11 transfer ratios are now finalized:

Gauge	Peak (final)	Total rise	Lag (peak QPE → peak gauge)	Transfer ratio	Prior comparison
St. Joe	5.22 ft / 949 cfs @ D82 02:00	+1.74 ft / +751 cfs from 3.48 ft pre	~37 hr from peak QPE (Day 80 ~10 CDT)	1.09 ft/in (1.74/1.60)	Event 8 (wet) ~1.5–2.0 ft/in; Event 10 (moist) ~1.3 ft/in. Dry-antecedent value lower as expected — within 30% of prior dry-event scaling.
Harriet	5.00 ft / 1130 cfs @ D82 13:15	+1.33 ft / +898 cfs from 3.67 ft pre	~51 hr from peak QPE	0.76 ft/in (1.33/1.76)	Event 8 ~1.0–1.2 ft/in (wet). Dry-antecedent Harriet transfer 0.76 ft/in is ~25–35% lower than wet — consistent with dry-soil dampening. Within expected deviation.

Antecedent (Event 11, 7-day at Day 80): Pruitt 0.07", St. Joe 0.25", Harriet 0.22" — DRY-DRY match across all gauges. This event is the cleanest dry-antecedent calibration for the lower mainstem in the study.

Propagation lag refinement: Harriet peak lagged St. Joe peak by ~11.25 hr (02:00 → 13:15). Earlier I noted Harriet "≥35 hr" lag from QPE; final value ~51 hr from peak QPE (Day 80 14:02 UTC = 09:02 CDT → D82 13:15 CDT = ~52 hr). This is the longest peak-to-peak lag observed in the study and reflects the dry-soil + large drainage (2,775 km²) combination.

Bear Creek anomaly persists: 2.06 → 2.16 ft over Days 80–82 = +0.10 ft / 1.11" = 0.09 ft/in. Far below mainstem ratios. Confirms Bear Cr dry-antecedent dampening pattern from prior hypothesis (~0.07 ft/in). No revision needed; consistent within 30%.

4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION

Final Event 11 mainstem cascade (peak-to-peak): - Boxley D81 01:30 → Pruitt D81 08:45 (Δ +7.25 hr) - Pruitt D81 08:45 → St. Joe D82 02:00 (Δ +17.25 hr) - St. Joe D82 02:00 → Harriet D82 13:15 (Δ +11.25 hr) - Total Boxley → Harriet: ~36 hr for dry-antecedent Event 11.

Compare to Event 8 (wet, multi-pulse): comparable Boxley→Harriet was ~24–28 hr. The ~30% longer dry-event propagation reflects pool-filling, slower wave celerity in dry channels, and reduced lateral inflow.

5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS

Event 11 is now substantially complete with the following final totals: - Duration of gauge response: ~60 hours (D80 morning → D82 evening, with Bear Cr still slowly rising). - Spatial: watershed-wide. - Recreational implications (height-based, more reliable than CFS per local knowledge): - Pruitt peaked at 4.60 ft — well into the Hailstone-equivalent boatable range, but Pruitt has no published thresholds; CFS peak 354 was in "Optimal" (200–2000). - St. Joe peak 949 cfs, Harriet peak 1130 cfs: both squarely in "Optimal" (200–8000 / 200–9370). No flood risk. - Richland peak 2.20 ft: below "Low but Floatable" threshold (3.2 ft). Did not produce a runnable upper Richland window — confirms local-knowledge expectation that dry-antecedent events rarely push Richland to boatable.

6. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES

• Harriet's exceptionally long lag (~52 hr from peak QPE) is the most striking finding. The 11.25-hr St. Joe→Harriet lag alone (430 km² zone, dry antecedent) substantially exceeds Event 8/10 St. Joe→Harriet timings. Worth flagging as the dry-antecedent lower-mainstem signature.
• Bear Creek still rising at EOD Day 82 — three days after Event 11 forcing. This is the slowest tributary peak in the study and warrants explicit tracking tomorrow.
• Final dry-antecedent transfer ratios at St. Joe (1.09 ft/in) and Harriet (0.76 ft/in) confirm the wet-to-dry dampening pattern of ~20–35% — consistent across both gauges.