Day 14 — 2026-03-14 — No precipitation, continued recession
Zero precipitation across all 37 HUC12s for the third consecutive day (3/12-3/14). 7-day antecedent precipitation is essentially unchanged from yesterday (minor rounding differences as the 7-day window shifts), ranging from 1.345" (Water Creek) to 3.217" (Whiteley Creek). The Event 2 rainfall (3/07) will begin rolling out of the 7-day window tomorrow, which should produce a noticeable drop in 7-day antecedent values.
All gauges in continued recession with no precipitation input. This is the cleanest recession observation in the study so far — three full dry days.
End-of-day values (3/14 ~23:30 CST):
| Gauge | EOD 3/13 | EOD 3/14 | Change | 24-hr decline rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 2.70 ft | 2.60 ft | -0.10 ft | -0.42%/hr |
| Ponca | 221 cfs | 195 cfs | -26 cfs | -0.49%/hr |
| Pruitt | 374 cfs / 4.71 ft | 308 cfs / 4.51 ft | -66 cfs / -0.20 ft | -0.81%/hr |
| St. Joe | 874 cfs / 5.17 ft | 732 cfs / 4.91 ft | -142 cfs / -0.26 ft | -0.73%/hr |
| Harriet | 1,070 cfs / 4.93 ft | 878 cfs / 4.70 ft | -192 cfs / -0.23 ft | -0.82%/hr |
| Richland | 1.53 ft | 1.46 ft | -0.07 ft | — |
| Bear Creek | 16.5 cfs / 2.51 ft | 15.0 cfs / 2.48 ft | -1.5 cfs / -0.03 ft | -0.40%/hr |
Key recession finding — UPDATED: The recession rate has slowed significantly compared to Day 12-13. On Day 12-13, all four mainstem gauges with CFS showed ~1.0%/hr exponential recession. Today (Day 14): - Ponca: 0.49%/hr (was ~1.0%/hr) - Pruitt: 0.81%/hr (was ~1.0%/hr) - St. Joe: 0.73%/hr (was ~1.0%/hr) - Harriet: 0.82%/hr (was ~1.0%/hr)
This is expected behavior — as flows approach baseflow, the recession rate slows. The exponential model Q(t) = Q₀ × 0.99^t was a reasonable approximation during the steep portion of the recession but is now overpredicting decline. This directly addresses Open Question #5 from the hypothesis document. The recession is transitioning from the steep "quick flow" component to the slower "baseflow recession" component.
Recession rate comparison — two-phase behavior: - Phase 1 (Day 12-13, ~500-1500 cfs range): ~1.0%/hr at all gauges - Phase 2 (Day 14, ~200-900 cfs range): ~0.5-0.8%/hr, with upper gauges (Ponca) slowing more than lower gauges
This suggests Ponca (195 cfs) is approaching its baseflow, while the lower gauges still have meaningful recession ahead.
None — no precipitation.
No new event to track. Recession continues uniformly downstream.
Recreational threshold crossings — confirmed:
Ponca crossed below 200 cfs (Low-but-Floatable/Optimal boundary) at ~16:00 CST on 3/14. The hypothesis from Day 13 predicted this crossing at ~3/14 15:00 CST — this is within 1 hour of the actual crossing. The 1.0%/hr model slightly overpredicted the decline (actual rate slowed), but the prediction was still remarkably close. By EOD, Ponca is at 195 cfs — now in "Low but Floatable" category and declining very slowly (~0.49%/hr). At this rate, Ponca will cross below 150 cfs (Too Low) around ~3/16-17.
Pruitt remains solidly in Optimal at 308 cfs (threshold 200 cfs). At the current ~0.81%/hr rate, Pruitt will cross below 200 cfs around ~3/17. Pruitt has been continuously in Optimal since 3/07 — that's 8 days and counting, heading toward 10+ days total.
St. Joe at 732 cfs — well above 200 cfs Optimal threshold. Many days of Optimal remaining.
Harriet at 878 cfs — same story, well above threshold.
Total Optimal window summary for Event 2+3 sequence: - Ponca: Optimal from 3/07 ~07:30 to 3/14 ~16:00 = ~7.4 days (now Low-but-Floatable) - Pruitt: Optimal from 3/07 ~03:00 through at least 3/17 = 10+ days projected - St. Joe: Optimal since 3/07, likely continuing through 3/20+ = 13+ days projected - Harriet: Similar to St. Joe
Ponca recession flattening: Ponca's recession rate dropped to 0.49%/hr — roughly half the rate of the other gauges. This is notable. At 195 cfs, Ponca may be approaching a baseflow floor that is higher than might be expected for this time of year. The extremely slow decline (only 26 cfs in 24 hours at a flow of ~200 cfs) suggests significant sustained baseflow from springs/karst in the Ponca zone. This will be an important observation for baseflow characterization (Open Question #6).
Local knowledge cross-reference: The Pruitt gauge channel scouring note from local knowledge remains relevant. At these lower flows (308 cfs, 4.51 ft), the reported river-right bias in flow could mean the Pruitt gauge is underreading actual flow. However, the height-discharge relationship appears consistent today, and we're not relying on cross-gauge CFS comparisons, so this is a background note rather than an active concern.