1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY: Zero precipitation across all 37 HUC12s. This is the second consecutive dry day. 7-day antecedent precipitation is declining as the Event 2 rainfall (3/07) begins to roll out of the 7-day window. Current 7-day range: 1.345" (Water Creek, Harriet zone) to 3.217" (Whiteley Creek, Ponca zone). The watershed remains moderately wet but is drying steadily.
2. GAUGE RESPONSES: All gauges in steady recession. No rises detected anywhere.
| Gauge | Start of Day | End of Day | Change | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley | 2.81 ft | 2.70 ft | -0.11 ft | -0.005 ft/hr |
| Ponca | 252 cfs | 221 cfs | -31 cfs | -1.3 cfs/hr |
| Pruitt | 4.97 ft / 468 cfs | 4.71 ft / 374 cfs | -0.26 ft / -94 cfs | -3.9 cfs/hr |
| St. Joe | 5.61 ft / 1,140 cfs | 5.17 ft / 874 cfs | -0.44 ft / -266 cfs | -11.1 cfs/hr |
| Harriet | 5.36 ft / 1,460 cfs | 4.93 ft / 1,070 cfs | -0.43 ft / -390 cfs | -16.3 cfs/hr |
| Richland | 1.57 ft | 1.53 ft | -0.04 ft | — |
| Bear Creek | 2.56 ft / 19.2 cfs | 2.51 ft / 16.5 cfs | -0.05 ft / -2.7 cfs | — |
Richland Creek anomaly note: A brief +0.05 ft spike appeared at 08:15-08:45 (1.56→1.61 ft), then fell back to 1.56 by 11:00. No QPE detected in the Richland zone. This is likely instrument noise or possibly a very brief/localized phenomenon below MRMS detection. Not hydrologically significant.
3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS: None — no precipitation today.
4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION: No new propagation events. The recession continues uniformly across all gauges.
5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS: This is the continued recession from the Event 2+3 sequence. Key recession observations:
Event 3 recession tracking (from Event 3 peaks): - Ponca: 547 cfs (3/11 08:45) → 221 cfs (3/13 23:15) = -326 cfs over ~62.5 hr = -5.2 cfs/hr (~-1.0%/hr from peak). Ponca is now approaching Low-but-Floatable territory (threshold 200 cfs). At current rate (-1.3 cfs/hr), will cross below 200 cfs in ~16 hours (around 3/14 15:00 CST). - Pruitt: 857 cfs (3/11 16:15) → 374 cfs (3/13 23:30) = -483 cfs over ~55.25 hr = -8.7 cfs/hr (~-1.0%/hr from peak). Pruitt remains solidly Optimal (threshold 200 cfs). At current late-day rate (-3.9 cfs/hr), Pruitt will remain Optimal for ~2 more days (until ~3/15-16). - St. Joe: 1,420 cfs (3/12 10:00) → 874 cfs (3/13 22:45) = -546 cfs over ~36.75 hr = -14.9 cfs/hr (~-1.0%/hr from peak). St. Joe remains well above Optimal threshold (200 cfs). At current rate, will remain Optimal for many days. - Harriet: 1,510 cfs (3/12 17:45) → 1,070 cfs (3/13 22:45) = -440 cfs over ~29 hr = -15.2 cfs/hr (~-1.0%/hr from peak). Harriet also well above 200 cfs threshold.
Recession rate convergence: Remarkably consistent ~1.0%/hr recession rate at all gauges. This is a useful baseline recession constant for the post-event 2+3 conditions.
Recreational status as of EOD 3/13: - Boxley: 2.70 ft — below Low-but-Floatable for both Boxley-Ponca (3.2 ft) and Hailstone (3.7 ft) - Ponca: 221 cfs — Optimal (>200 cfs) but barely; will likely drop to Low-but-Floatable tomorrow - Pruitt: 374 cfs — Optimal; ~2 more days - St. Joe: 874 cfs — Optimal; many days remaining - Harriet: 1,070 cfs — Optimal; many days remaining
Total Optimal duration at Pruitt from Event 2+3 sequence: Pruitt entered Optimal on 3/07 (~09:00 when it crossed 200 cfs on the rise). It has been continuously above 200 cfs through EOD 3/13 = 7+ days continuous Optimal and counting. Will likely reach ~9 days total before dropping below threshold. This validates the stacked event hypothesis — the Event 2+3 sequence dramatically extended recreational windows compared to a single event.
6. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES: Nothing unexpected. The clean recession with no precipitation provides excellent data for characterizing baseflow recession constants. The ~1.0%/hr rate across all gauges is remarkably uniform and will be useful for predicting recession timing after future events.