Classification: correct Confidence: Model confidence is stabilizing. The successful rejection of a minor rainfall event after two recent false positives indicates that the conservative bias introduced in v18 is appropriate. The model is now correctly prioritizing gauge ground-truth over QPE noise for low-intensity events.
The model correctly predicted a near-baseline peak stage of 0.63 ft, aligning with the observed flat hydrograph and minimal 0.06 ft rise.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 0.63 ft | 0.67 ft | -0.04 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.06 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Headline: ~15% chance of rising to LOW in the next 6–12 h. Experimental. Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: None Notes: The empirical forecast predicted a 'low' tier with 15% confidence. The actual outcome was 'below_low' (0.67 ft). The low probability estimate was reasonable, though the outcome was slightly below the 'low' threshold. The 'experimental' label suggests caution is warranted.
The prediction was accurate in magnitude, with a peak error of only -6.0% (predicted 0.63 ft vs actual 0.67 ft). The model successfully identified that the late-day QPE rainfall (max ~0.15") was insufficient to generate a meaningful rise above the baseline, which is consistent with the ground-truth gauge precipitation of 0.0 inches.
The significant timing error (23.8 hours) is a byproduct of the event's low amplitude; with a rise of only 0.06 ft, the hydrograph is effectively flat, making the concept of a 'peak time' ambiguous and irrelevant to operational planning. The model's conservative approach to low-intensity rainfall, particularly given the WET antecedent moisture conditions, prevented the false positives seen in recent history (08-06, 08-07).
No changes made.
Model confidence is stabilizing. The successful rejection of a minor rainfall event after two recent false positives indicates that the conservative bias introduced in v18 is appropriate. The model is now correctly prioritizing gauge ground-truth over QPE noise for low-intensity events.