Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-09-07

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 15, no-rise-indicated: 0, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 9
Settled (horizon passed): 24

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

04:18 UTC — gauge tier low (237 cfs). Rain 24 h: 2.6 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

03:18 UTC — gauge tier low (237 cfs). Rain 24 h: 2.6 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

02:18 UTC — gauge tier low (237 cfs). Rain 24 h: 2.6 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

01:18 UTC — gauge tier low (237 cfs). Rain 24 h: 2.6 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

00:18 UTC — gauge tier low (237 cfs). Rain 24 h: 2.6 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

23:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 2.6 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

22:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 2.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

21:18 UTC — gauge tier low (221 cfs). Rain 24 h: 1.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15.9 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

20:18 UTC — gauge tier low (221 cfs). Rain 24 h: 1.9 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

19:18 UTC — gauge tier low (221 cfs). Rain 24 h: 2.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

18:18 UTC — gauge tier low (221 cfs). Rain 24 h: 2.7 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

17:18 UTC — gauge tier low (218 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

16:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.1 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

15:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.1 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

14:18 UTC — gauge tier low (224 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

13:18 UTC — gauge tier low (224 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

12:18 UTC — gauge tier low (224 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

11:18 UTC — gauge tier low (221 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

10:18 UTC — gauge tier low (221 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

09:18 UTC — gauge tier low (224 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

08:18 UTC — gauge tier low (224 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

07:18 UTC — gauge tier low (224 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

06:18 UTC — gauge tier low (224 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise

05:18 UTC — gauge tier low (224 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: ~15 % chance of rising to MEDIUM within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max low — did not rise