Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-08-25

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 0, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 0
Settled (horizon passed): 24

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

05:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max low — did not reach target

04:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max low — did not reach target

03:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max low — did not reach target

02:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max low — did not reach target

01:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max low — did not reach target

00:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 0.5 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max low — did not reach target

23:18 UTC — gauge tier medium. Rain 24 h: 0.8 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max low — did not reach target

22:18 UTC — gauge tier medium. Rain 24 h: 1.2 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

21:18 UTC — gauge tier medium. Rain 24 h: 1.2 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

20:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 1.2 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

19:18 UTC — gauge tier medium. Rain 24 h: 1.3 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

18:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 1.6 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

17:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 1.6 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

16:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 1.6 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

15:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 1.6 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

14:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 1.6 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

13:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 1.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

12:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 1.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

11:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 3.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

10:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 5.8 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

09:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 6.2 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

08:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 6.2 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

07:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 6.2 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target

06:18 UTC — gauge tier low. Rain 24 h: 6.2 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max medium — did not reach target