Empirical Forecasts — Hailstone (upper Buffalo) — 2026-09-06

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 24, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 0
Settled (horizon passed): 24

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Hailstone (upper Buffalo)

04:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.76 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

03:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.76 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

02:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.76 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

01:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.76 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

00:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.82 cfs). Rain 6 h: 1.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

23:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.82 cfs). Rain 6 h: 1.5 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

22:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.76 cfs). Rain 6 h: 1.5 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

21:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.76 cfs). Rain 6 h: 1.5 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

20:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.7 cfs). Rain 6 h: 1.5 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

19:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.64 cfs). Rain 6 h: 1.5 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

18:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.59 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.4 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

17:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.59 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

16:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.59 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

15:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.59 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

14:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.59 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

13:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.59 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

12:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.59 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

11:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.59 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

10:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.59 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

09:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.59 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

08:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.59 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

07:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.64 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

06:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.64 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

05:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.64 cfs). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative