Empirical Forecasts — Hailstone (upper Buffalo) — 2026-07-15

Hourly records: 16 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 0, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 0
Settled (horizon passed): 16

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Hailstone (upper Buffalo)

21:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 26.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

20:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 26.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

19:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 21.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

18:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 13.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

17:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 0.4 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

16:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

15:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 0.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

14:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 0.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

13:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 0.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

12:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 0.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

11:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 0.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

10:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 0.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

09:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

08:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 3.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

07:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 4.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

06:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 6 h: 4.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target