Classification: correct Confidence: Model confidence remains high. The recent history shows a mix of correct predictions and one significant false positive, but the last three events have been correctly classified. The model is performing well on low-magnitude events, which is critical for avoiding unnecessary false alarms.
The physics model accurately predicted a negligible peak flow response (1.6 CFS predicted vs 1.88 CFS actual, -16.0% error) following a light rainfall event in normal antecedent conditions.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak CFS | 2 CFS | 2 CFS | -0 CFS |
| Total rise | — | 0.7 CFS | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
The physics model correctly captured the magnitude of the runoff response, with a peak error of -16.0% (predicted 1.6 CFS vs. actual 1.88 CFS). This falls within the acceptable range for a 'correct' classification, especially given the small magnitude of the event (rise of 0.7 CFS). The timing error of 5.6 hours is notable but consistent with previous events where timing errors have been observed; however, for such a small, low-magnitude event, the magnitude accuracy is the primary indicator of model performance.
The empirical forecast was not issued for this event, so no assessment of its accuracy is possible. The event represents a quiet day with minimal hydrological response, and the model's ability to correctly predict a low peak (rather than a false positive) is a positive sign of calibration stability.
No changes made.