Classification: correct Confidence: Model confidence remains high for dry/normal moisture conditions with light rainfall. The accurate prediction of a quiet day reinforces the calibration for low-energy events.
The model correctly predicted a negligible rise for a dry day with minimal rainfall, matching the observed flat hydrograph.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 1.98 ft | 1.95 ft | +0.03 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.06 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.08" | 0.05 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
| 3 | 0.11" | 0.04 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
| 4 | 0.09" | 0.02 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
| 5 | 0.12" | 0.02 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical headline 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall' was correct, as the gauge only rose 0.06 ft, remaining well below the 'low' threshold of 3.0 ft.
The event on 2026-08-26 was characterized by very light rainfall across all bands (max QPE ~0.22" in Band 1) and NORMAL antecedent moisture (1.45" in 7 days). The gauge recorded a minor rise of 0.06 ft from a baseline of 1.89 ft to a peak of 1.95 ft. The model predicted a peak of 1.98 ft, resulting in a magnitude error of only 1.5% (0.03 ft), which is well within the 'correct' tolerance of ±15-20%.
Although the timing error was significant (14.8 hours, predicting the peak later than observed), this is a common artifact in low-energy events where the hydrograph rise is so small and gradual that the exact 'peak' time is difficult to distinguish from noise or baseline fluctuations. The hydrograph shape was flat, indicating no significant runoff generation, which aligns with the model's low predicted contributions from all bands. The model correctly identified that the rainfall intensity (LIGHT) and distribution were insufficient to generate a meaningful hydrograph response above the baseline.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains high for dry/normal moisture conditions with light rainfall. The accurate prediction of a quiet day reinforces the calibration for low-energy events.