Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains stable. The failure to predict the midnight rise is not an error in the rainfall-response coefficients, but rather a limitation in handling recession/continuation phases without new precipitation inputs.
The predictor generated no output today; however, a 1.44 ft sharp rise occurred at the start of the day with zero QPE inputs and zero gauge precipitation, likely representing residual runoff from the previous saturated event.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | N/A | 5.42 ft | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 1.44 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
The prediction engine reported 'None' for the predicted peak, triggering a 'no_prediction' classification. Despite the lack of a prediction, the gauge recorded a significant 1.44 ft rise to 5.42 ft at midnight. Crucially, all QPE bands reported 0.00" for the entire 24-hour period, and the gauge precipitation sensor recorded 0".
This event signature (sharp rise, no rain) is consistent with the tail end of a large hydrograph. The previous event (June 7) involved heavy rainfall across all bands and saturated conditions, peaking at 6.24 ft later that evening. The midnight rise on June 8 appears to be part of that same continuous hydrologic response, potentially the final peak or a secondary hump before recession, rather than a new rainfall-driven event. Since the predictor did not generate a value, and there was no new rainfall to trigger a standard forecast, no coefficient adjustments can be made based on rainfall-response relationships. The system correctly identified no new precipitable input, though the lack of a 'quiet day' prediction suggests the recession phase of the prior event was not modeled as a standalone prediction target.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains stable. The failure to predict the midnight rise is not an error in the rainfall-response coefficients, but rather a limitation in handling recession/continuation phases without new precipitation inputs.