Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains unchanged as no prediction was made to evaluate. The absence of prediction during a minor rise with minimal rainfall is acceptable behavior to avoid false positives, though the gauge sensitivity under wet conditions is noted.
The prediction engine generated no output for today's event, which involved a 0.54 ft rise driven by minimal, localized precipitation.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | N/A | 3.3 ft | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 0.54 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
The prediction system reported no generated forecast for this event, classifying it as a 'no_prediction' case. This occurred despite a measurable 0.54 ft rise in the gauge (from 2.76 ft to 3.3 ft). The rise was sharp and occurred within the first hour of the day, coinciding with the gauge's daily maximum.
Rainfall data from QPE was extremely sparse and localized, with only trace amounts (0.05"-0.07") recorded in Bands 3-5 at 05:12 UTC, and zero precipitation at the gauge itself. The lack of significant rainfall input likely caused the predictor to suppress output, assuming no meaningful hydrological response would occur. However, the observed rise suggests either unmeasured localized precipitation near the gauge or a sensitive response to the antecedent wet conditions (WET tier, 1.832" 7-day avg).
Because no prediction was made, no coefficient adjustments can be calibrated against a forecast error. The system correctly identified insufficient rainfall signal for a standard physics-based prediction, though the actual gauge response indicates sensitivity to minor inputs under wet conditions.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains unchanged as no prediction was made to evaluate. The absence of prediction during a minor rise with minimal rainfall is acceptable behavior to avoid false positives, though the gauge sensitivity under wet conditions is noted.