Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains unchanged as no prediction was generated for validation. The QPE vs gauge precipitation discrepancy highlights need for data quality monitoring.
Multi-band rainfall event (0.34" Band 1, 0.73" Band 4, 0.71" Band 5) produced a sharp 1.61 ft rise but no prediction was generated to evaluate model performance.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | N/A | 4.54 ft | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 1.61 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
This event shows significant rainfall across multiple bands with the heaviest amounts in the headwaters (Bands 4-5: 0.73-0.71") and moderate rainfall near the gauge (Band 1: 0.34"). The sharp hydrograph shape with 1.2-hour rise duration suggests Band 1 dominance despite lower rainfall amounts, which is consistent with the wet antecedent conditions (WET tier, 1.925" 7-day average). The gauge precipitation sensor recorded 0" which contradicts the QPE Band 1 reading of 0.34", indicating potential QPE error.
The 1.61 ft rise is substantial and would have provided valuable calibration data, particularly for understanding the interaction between near-gauge and headwater contributions under wet conditions. The sharp response pattern suggests Band 1 was the primary driver despite the higher QPE readings in Bands 4-5. Without a prediction to compare against, we cannot make data-driven coefficient adjustments, but the event reinforces the importance of Band 1's responsiveness in wet conditions.
The discrepancy between gauge precipitation (0") and QPE Band 1 (0.34") is concerning and suggests either QPE error or gauge sensor issues. This type of validation check is crucial for maintaining model accuracy.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains unchanged as no prediction was generated for validation. The QPE vs gauge precipitation discrepancy highlights need for data quality monitoring.