Classification: partial Confidence: Continued overprediction pattern suggests coefficients still too high despite recent reductions - confidence remains medium pending further calibration
Model overpredicted peak by 0.75 ft (29%) during a multi-band rainfall event with heavy intensity burst around 20:12 UTC.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 3.34 ft | 2.59 ft | +0.75 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.16 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.84" | 2.35 ft | HEAVY | WET |
| 3 | 0.91" | 1.35 ft | HEAVY | WET |
| 4 | 0.84" | 0.64 ft | HEAVY | WET |
| 5 | 1.02" | 0.52 ft | HEAVY | WET |
The model predicted a 3.34 ft peak but observed only 2.59 ft, representing a significant 29% overprediction. The rainfall pattern showed a concentrated burst around 20:12 UTC with 0.59-0.72 inches across all bands, followed by lighter amounts. The sharp hydrograph shape and 1.8-hour rise duration suggest this was primarily a near-gauge event despite QPE showing similar amounts across bands. The gauge precipitation of 0.69 inches closely matches Band 1 QPE of 0.84 inches total, confirming the rainfall distribution.
The overprediction appears driven by the model treating this as a multi-band event when the sharp, quick response suggests Band 1 dominance. All band coefficients contributed to the overprediction, but Bands 2-3 particularly overestimated their contributions given the sharp hydrograph shape. The timing was also off by 1.7 hours, with the model predicting arrival at 05:39 but actual peak occurring at 23:00, suggesting the lag assumptions for the dominant band may be incorrect.
| Band | Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -10% | Sharp hydrograph suggests Band 1 dominance but still overpredicted - moderate reduction needed |
| 2 | -15% | Significant overprediction for what appears to be secondary contribution based on sharp response |
| 3 | -15% | Significant overprediction for what appears to be secondary contribution based on sharp response |
| 4 | -10% | Moderate overprediction, but headwater bands should have minimal impact on sharp events |
| 5 | -10% | Moderate overprediction, but headwater bands should have minimal impact on sharp events |
Continued overprediction pattern suggests coefficients still too high despite recent reductions - confidence remains medium pending further calibration