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Cossatot River — Daily Analysis: 2026-04-16

Classification: no_prediction Confidence: No prediction event limits calibration progress - system should have generated prediction for this rainfall distribution

Event Summary

Moderate rainfall (0.59 inches total) produced a 0.66 ft rise with very broad hydrograph shape, but no prediction was generated to evaluate model performance.

Prediction vs Actual

Metric Predicted Actual Error
Peak height N/A 3.05 ft N/A
Total rise 0.66 ft

Band Contributions

Band Precip Predicted Rise Intensity Moisture

Analysis

This event featured moderate rainfall distributed across all bands (0.59" Band 1, 0.47" Band 2, 0.39" Band 3, 0.41" Band 4, 0.39" Band 5) under NORMAL moisture conditions. The gauge confirmed 0.51" precipitation, validating the QPE data quality. The resulting 0.66 ft rise with a very broad 12.2-hour duration hydrograph suggests contributions from multiple bands with different lag times, consistent with the distributed rainfall pattern.

The broad hydrograph shape and 2.25-hour lag to rise start indicates this was primarily a multi-band event rather than dominated by near-gauge precipitation. Given the rainfall amounts exceeded typical trigger thresholds in multiple bands, a prediction should have been generated. The lack of prediction suggests either a system issue or the rainfall amounts were just below the combined trigger threshold. This represents a missed opportunity to validate the current coefficients against a clean multi-band event with good ground truth data.

Coefficient Adjustments

No changes made.

Notes

No prediction event limits calibration progress - system should have generated prediction for this rainfall distribution

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