← 2026-09-09

Empirical Forecasts — Big Piney Creek — 2026-09-10

Hourly records: 7 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 7, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 0
Settled (horizon passed): 0

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Big Piney Creek

11:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.26 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-09-11 17:18 UTC

10:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.26 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-09-11 16:18 UTC

09:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.26 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-09-11 15:18 UTC

08:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.26 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-09-11 14:18 UTC

07:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.26 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-09-11 13:18 UTC

06:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.26 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-09-11 12:18 UTC

05:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.26 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-09-11 11:18 UTC

← 2026-09-09