Empirical Forecasts — Big Piney Creek — 2026-09-08

Hourly records: 12 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 12, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 0
Settled (horizon passed): 12

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Big Piney Creek

01:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.24 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

00:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.24 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

23:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.24 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

22:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.24 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

21:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.23 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.1 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

20:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.23 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.4 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~1.4 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

19:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.22 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.4 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~1.4 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

18:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.22 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.4 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~1.4 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

17:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.22 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.4 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~1.4 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

16:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.4 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~1.4 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

15:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.4 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~1.4 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

14:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.4 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~1.4 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative