Empirical Forecasts — Big Piney Creek — 2026-09-02

Hourly records: 25 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 17, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 0
Settled (horizon passed): 25

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Big Piney Creek

05:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.09 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

04:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.09 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

03:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.09 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

02:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.09 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

01:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.09 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

00:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.09 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

23:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.08 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

22:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.08 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

21:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.07 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

20:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.07 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

19:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.06 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

18:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.05 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

17:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.05 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

16:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.04 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

15:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.04 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

14:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.04 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

14:01 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.03 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

13:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

12:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

11:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

10:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

09:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

08:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

07:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target

06:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low. Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW (legacy v1 record, no probability stored) - Outcome: max below_low — did not reach target