Empirical Forecasts — Richland Creek — 2026-05-28

Forecasts archived: 6
Settled (expiry passed): 6

Richland Creek

18:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 6h: 32.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p25_to_p50, confidence low - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: high, crossed: 18:30 UTC)

10:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 11.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence high - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 17:00 UTC)

09:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 14.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence high - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: low, crossed: 17:00 UTC)

08:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 15.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence high - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

07:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 15.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence high - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

06:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 14.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence high - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)